Cuban Lawyer Laritza Diversent: "The End Begins This Year"

Laritza Diversent, attorney and director of Cubalex, was unequivocal during a live interview with Tania Costa on CiberCuba: 2026 signifies "the beginning of the end" for the Cuban regime and marks the onset of a transition that she warns must be carefully managed to avoid repeating past mistakes.

When asked if the regime will collapse on its own or needs to be overthrown, Diversent did not commit to a single path. "It can't continue. I think the population is saying it, sooner or later," she responded, leaving open the possibility of both spontaneous collapse and active overthrow.

The Dawn of Change

Her assessment of the current moment was straightforward. "The beginning of the end is this year. I'm not sure if it will happen this summer because summer is upon us, but it is definitely this year. It's the start of the end, the beginning of the transition, and the conclusion of this situation we're experiencing."

However, Diversent cautioned that the fall of the regime does not automatically result in the arrival of democracy. "The question is whether we are prepared for what this change entails. That's a point to consider, so we don't have a transition without direction," she noted, using a colloquial phrase to refer to a hasty or aimless transition.

Preparing for a Lasting Transition

The lawyer emphasized dismantling the notion that political change happens overnight. "Transition is not a process that lasts a year or happens from one day to the next. Get rid of that idea. A transition can take 10, 20 years or more," she stated, citing Russia and former Soviet Union countries as examples, many of which are still undergoing political transformation decades later.

Diversent's greatest concern is the potential to repeat the pattern of 1959 when Cuba shifted from Batista's dictatorship to totalitarianism without society recognizing it as such at the time. She warned that if civil society doesn't prepare and discuss how the transition should occur now, that cycle could repeat itself.

Dire Conditions and Rising Protests

During the live broadcast, a comment from the chat highlighted the harsh reality on the island. A user identified as Telvia wrote: "Water never comes." Diversent took this as a symbol of the crisis: "Food, water, and electricity, that's all they're asking for. And that tells you the level of indignity the Cuban population is living in today."

This collapse is evidenced by concrete figures. In June 2026, there were 107 street protests in Cuba, nearly double the previous high, according to the Cuban Conflict Observatory. Power outages have lasted up to 87 hours consecutively in Matanzas and 35 hours straight in Havana. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) forecasts a -6.5% contraction in Cuba's GDP for 2026, the worst in the region.

In this scenario, Cubalex has denounced that the regime's announced releases are selective and reversible, and that the mass pardon in April 2026—which benefited over 2,000 inmates—did not include political prisoners.

Diversent concluded with a commitment from exile. "At Cubalex, we constantly work for change in that country, and when change comes, we will not abandon it."

The Cuban opposition has outlined a four-phase transition roadmap—prisoner release, stabilization, reconstruction, and free elections—in a context where, according to Diversent, the regime has no intention of relinquishing power. "This is a matter of privileges, of money, all tied up here," she concluded.