This Saturday, the informal currency exchange market in Cuba has shown contrasting trends: the U.S. dollar has increased to 663 Cuban pesos (CUP), while the euro has dropped to 756 CUP, and the MLC is valued at 433 CUP, according to the latest data.
On Friday, the situation was different: the dollar held steady at 660 CUP after five days without change, the euro was at 760 CUP—marking its tenth day without fluctuation—and the MLC was at 437.19 CUP, based on the Informal Market Representative Rate (TRMI) from elTOQUE.
Saturday's Informal Exchange Rates in Cuba
As of July 18, 2026, 06:30: The dollar to CUP rate is 663 CUP, the euro to CUP rate is 756 CUP, and the MLC to CUP rate is 433 CUP. Compared to Friday, the dollar has gained three pesos, the euro has decreased by four, and the MLC has dropped by more than four pesos.
There is a significant gap in offers between buyers and sellers on the informal market: the dollar ranges from 600 to 710 CUP, the euro from 665 to 800 CUP, and the MLC from 400 to 500 CUP.
Economic Context and Predictions
The dollar's bounce back is not unexpected for analysts. The Currency and Financial Observatory (OMFi) of elTOQUE had noted in its July 9 bulletin that the "recent decline in foreign currency at the end of June was temporary," and that "demand for dollars has regained strength against supply," predicting "the rebound in rates will continue in the coming days."
OMFi forecasts the dollar will fluctuate between 620 and 730 CUP throughout July, with the 700 CUP mark acting as a resistance level, while the euro is expected to hover around 780 CUP, with a possible peak of 820 CUP.
The Impact on Cuban Economy
The backdrop for Cubans is grim. Since the end of June, the peso has depreciated by 9.1% against the dollar, equating to an additional 55 pesos per U.S. dollar. Over six years, the national currency has plummeted more than 95% in value: from 42 CUP per dollar in 2020 to current levels.
The new minimum wage of 3,210 CUP, effective July 1 (though workers won't receive it until August), amounts to less than five dollars at the informal rate. The official average salary of 6,930 CUP barely reaches 10.5 dollars per month, while independent economists suggest that meeting basic needs requires about 96,060 pesos monthly, roughly 14 times the current wage.
OMFi also cautioned that "the Cuban government faces a credibility issue" and that "internal reforms are unlikely to be sufficient without some form of negotiation with the United States to ease sanctions, facilitate external financing, entry of oil, remittances, travel, and diaspora investment."
Frequently Asked Questions on Cuba's Currency Situation
Why did the dollar rise in Cuba's informal market?
The increase in the dollar is attributed to a renewed demand overpowering the supply, as indicated by the Currency and Financial Observatory (OMFi).
What is the predicted range for the dollar in July?
OMFi predicts the dollar will fluctuate between 620 and 730 CUP, with resistance around 700 CUP.
How has the peso's value changed over the years?
The Cuban peso has lost over 95% of its value in the past six years, falling from 42 CUP per dollar in 2020 to its current levels.
What challenges does the Cuban government face regarding its currency policy?
The Cuban government struggles with credibility and must address internal reforms alongside negotiations with the United States to alleviate sanctions and improve economic conditions.