Currency Exchange in Cuba's Black Market: Current Rates for Dollars, Euros, and MLC

This Thursday begins with a deceptive calm in Cuba's informal currency market, masking a worsening reality: the devaluation of the Cuban peso.

As reported by elTOQUE's Informal Market Representative Rate (TRMI) today, the dollar remains steady at 660 CUP for the fourth consecutive day, the euro has been locked at 760 CUP for nine days, and the MLC is trading at 452.44 CUP.

The independent outlet cautions that the stability in the TRMI does not equate to market equilibrium.

The offers posted today range from 600 to 700 CUP, a spread where some sellers are demanding nearly 17% more than the lowest offers.

The most telling statistic is the monthly depreciation: since the end of June, the peso has lost 9.1% of its value against the U.S. dollar, translating to an additional 55 pesos per dollar.

Over six years, the decline is staggering: from 42 CUP in 2020 to 660 CUP in July 2026, representing a loss of more than 95% of the Cuban peso's value.

The Dollar's Trajectory: Predictions and Reality

According to the July 9 bulletin from the elTOQUE Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi), the dollar is expected to fluctuate between 620 and 730 CUP this month, with 700 CUP acting as a resistance level.

The OMFi made it clear: "The recent drop in currency values at the end of June was temporary," and "demand for dollars has regained momentum over supply."

Euro: Steady but Misleading Stability

The euro has held at 760 CUP for nine consecutive days, an unusually prolonged stability for Cuba's informal market. Yet, the monthly overview tells a different story: since June's end, the euro has risen by 60 pesos, an 8.6% increase reflecting the same structural issues plaguing the peso.

Today's offers range between 730 and 795 CUP, showing a narrower spread than the dollar.

The OMFi forecasts the euro to hover around 780 CUP in July, "with a potential peak of 820 CUP."

The gap with the official exchange rates set by the Central Bank of Cuba is vast: the official rate is 592 CUP for the dollar and 676.15 CUP for the euro, while the informal market exceeds these by 68 and 84 CUP, respectively.

MLC: The Most Volatile of All

The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) has been experiencing a tumultuous week.

After plummeting to 419 CUP on July 11 and rebounding to 492 CUP on July 13, the MLC has decreased again to 452.44 CUP today, far below the 520 CUP that OMFi had projected for the month.

The Hidden Impact: Cuban Income Crisis

Behind each exchange rate shift lies a harsh reality for millions of families.

The new minimum wage, set at 3,210 CUP from July 1—a nominal increase of 53% from the previous 2,100 CUP—equates to less than five dollars at the informal exchange rate, and workers won't see this paycheck until August.

The official average salary of 6,930 CUP is barely 10.5 dollars a month, and over 1.7 million retirees receiving the minimum pension of 4,000 CUP get just over six dollars.

Independent economists estimate that basic needs in Cuba require about 96,060 pesos monthly, approximately 14 times the official average salary.

Economic Reforms and Analysts' Skepticism

On June 19, 2026, the National Assembly approved a package of 176 economic reforms, including the legalization of private banking, the removal of the 100-worker cap for small businesses, and the creation of a digital currency exchange market.

The OMFi was blunt: "The Cuban government faces a credibility issue, so the real impact of the announced measures can only be assessed when they are translated into decrees, regulations, and concrete institutional changes."

The organization also cautioned that internal reforms "are unlikely to suffice unless accompanied by some form of negotiation with the United States to ease sanctions, facilitate external financing, allow oil entry, remittances, travel, and investment from the diaspora."

As discussions continue, the OMFi anticipates "the exchange rate rebound will persist in the coming days."