On Wednesday, Cuba's informal currency market saw notable shifts across the three primary currencies. The U.S. dollar experienced a rise from 655 to 660 CUP, while the euro also climbed by five pesos to reach 760 CUP. Conversely, the MCL, or freely convertible currency, saw a significant drop from 476 to 441.26 CUP.
Real-time monitoring by elToque reveals that the informal market offers a wide range: the euro fluctuates between 720 and 800 CUP, the dollar between 600 and 710 CUP, and the MLC between 400 and 500 CUP.
Euro and Dollar Gain Ground; MLC Remains Unstable
This week has been marked by extreme volatility, particularly in the MLC. On Monday, the MLC made a remarkable recovery of 50 pesos in less than a day, jumping from 442 to 492 CUP. However, on Tuesday, it fell back to 476 CUP, and by Wednesday, it continued to decline to 441.26 CUP, with no signs of stabilizing.
The dollar has dropped 35 pesos since its recent record high of 695 CUP, registered on June 21, just days after the National Assembly approved 176 economic measures. These include legalizing private banks and creating a digital currency market.
In contrast, the euro continues its upward trend, nearing the 800 CUP ceiling that analysts have identified as a potential monthly high.
The official exchange rate from the Central Bank of Cuba remains at 592 CUP per dollar and 674.23 CUP per euro, reflecting a gap of 68 pesos for the dollar and nearly 86 pesos for the euro compared to the informal market.
OMFi's Outlook for July
On July 9, the Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi) released its monthly forecast, providing insights into market movements for July. The OMFi was explicit about the dollar: "The dollar is expected to continue appreciating against the Cuban peso in the informal market throughout July 2026, with an estimated range of 620 to 730 CUP." The agency also noted that "the 700 CUP per dollar level will continue to act as a resistance point this month." With the dollar at 660 CUP this Wednesday, it remains within the projected range but below the resistance level.
As for the euro, the forecast placed the rate "around 780 CUP, with a potential peak of 820 CUP." At 760 CUP this Wednesday, the euro is progressing in line with this prediction and is approaching the central projected value. However, the MLC is trading well below the anticipated 520 CUP for this month.
The OMFi also pointed out that "the recent drop in currencies at the end of June was temporary" and that "demand for dollars has regained strength against supply," predicting that "exchange rate rebounds will continue in the coming days." Regarding the reforms approved in June, the OMFi was clear: "The Cuban government faces a credibility issue, so the real impact of the announced measures can only be assessed once they translate into decrees, regulations, and concrete institutional changes."
The Impact on Cuban Citizens
Each currency fluctuation has a devastating reality for millions of families. The minimum wage, set at 3,210 CUP as of July 1, equates to less than five dollars at the informal exchange rate. The official average salary of 6,930 CUP barely reaches 10.5 dollars per month, and over 1.7 million retirees receiving the minimum pension of 4,000 CUP get just over six dollars.
Independent economists estimate that covering basic needs requires about 96,060 pesos per month, roughly 14 times the official average salary. Over six years, the Cuban peso has lost over 95% of its value against the dollar, from 42 CUP in 2020 to 660 CUP this Wednesday.
The OMFi warned that internal reforms "are unlikely to be sufficient if not accompanied by some form of negotiation with the United States to ease sanctions, facilitate external financing, allow the entry of oil, remittances, travel, and investment from the diaspora."
Understanding Cuba's Currency Crisis
What are the current exchange rates for the dollar, euro, and MLC in Cuba's informal market?
As of this Wednesday, the dollar trades between 600 and 710 CUP, the euro ranges from 720 to 800 CUP, and the MLC is between 400 and 500 CUP in the informal market.
How has the Cuban peso's value changed over recent years?
Over the past six years, the Cuban peso has depreciated significantly, losing over 95% of its value against the dollar, from 42 CUP in 2020 to 660 CUP currently.
What are the economic measures recently approved by Cuba's National Assembly?
The National Assembly has approved 176 economic measures, including the legalization of private banks and the establishment of a digital currency market.