Economist Elías Amor warns that the military conglomerate GAESA is facing deliberate and systematic challenges that could signal the beginning of its dismantling. He elaborated on this during the fourth and final segment of his analysis series on Díaz-Canel's 176 economic measures, broadcasted on CiberCuba.
Amor vividly describes the situation: "They're taking swipes at GAESA, which I believe is a very strategic move." He cites a recent example of the transfer of Mariel-based companies, previously under GAESA's umbrella, including distributors, to new ownership structures.
This shift was no coincidence. On June 25, 2026, just two days after Washington sanctioned Almacenes Universales S.A.—a GAESA entity overseeing container traffic in the Mariel Special Development Zone—GAESA officially sold the Mariel Container Terminal assets to Coral Marítima S.A., a company linked to the Cuban Ministry of Transport.
Analysts and opposition figures label this maneuver as a sanction-evasion strategy. The real control remains within the same power circles, but the sanctioned entity vanishes from official records. GAESA also withdrew from its involvement in the Miramar Business Center, utilizing civilian ministries as corporate fronts.
Strategic Moves Amid Sanctions
Amor cautions that this is just the beginning: "This will happen frequently because GAESA's businesses are deeply interconnected." The conglomerate, controlled by the Cuban Armed Forces, manages between 40% and 70% of the island's formal economy, encompassing hotels, ports, gas stations, foreign trade, and telecommunications.
For Amor, these transfers are not mere administrative reorganizations but potent political messages. "This is a sign that very clear messages are being sent, which we might not hear because we don't need to, but the status quo is not idle."
Political Implications and U.S. Elections
The pressure on GAESA fits into a broader offensive by the Trump Administration, which has imposed over 240 new sanctions against the Cuban regime since January 2026. On May 7, 2026, under Executive Order 14404, Washington directly sanctioned the conglomerate and its president, Brigadier General Ania Guillermina Lastres Morera, freezing their assets under U.S. jurisdiction.
Amor links this pressure to the U.S. electoral calendar. "I am convinced that for the November midterm elections, both Marco Rubio, who is very astute, and Donald Trump cannot proceed without a favorable report on the Cuban situation," he states in his weekly program with Tania Costa.
The midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will see the renewal of the entire House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats.
Optimism Amidst Accusations
When a follower accused him live of being a CIA agent, Amor responded with humor and resolve. "For many years, we've been accused of that, and of being an optimist as well, but I refuse to view reality with a sad perspective."
Amor's optimism is grounded in historical experience. "Since the 1980s, when perestroika and glasnost occurred, we imagined Cuba would change," he recalls, noting that what seemed impossible eventually happened. Amor has consistently maintained this stance: on April 30, 2026, he declared that "Cuba would be free before summer," and on May 29, he predicted surprises for early June.
Key Questions on GAESA's Future
Why is GAESA under pressure?
GAESA is facing challenges due to deliberate and systematic actions that may indicate the start of its dismantling. This is part of a broader strategy by the U.S. to pressure the Cuban regime.
What are the implications of GAESA's asset transfers?
The asset transfers are seen as a political strategy to evade sanctions. While the real control remains with the same power circles, the sanctioned entities are removed from official documentation.
How is the U.S. involved in GAESA's situation?
The U.S., specifically under the Trump Administration, has imposed over 240 sanctions against the Cuban regime, targeting entities like GAESA to increase pressure on the government.