The U.S. dollar has seen a significant increase in value over the past hours within Cuba's informal market, marking four straight days of recovery after a steep decline in late June.
On the morning of July 4th, a day marking the 250th anniversary of the United States' founding, the dollar is being sold in Cuba at an average of 645 Cuban pesos (CUP), up by 15 CUP.
This rebound arrives just days after the dollar hit a recent low of 605 CUP on June 30, having plummeted 90 CUP from a historic high of 695 CUP on June 21.
The recent volatility in exchange rates keeps millions of Cubans on edge, as their purchasing power is directly tied to these fluctuations.
Persistent Dollar Recovery Over Four Days
The dollar's resurgence began on July 1, with the currency rising to 610 CUP following the late June dip.
In a mere four days, the dollar has clawed back 40 CUP from its June 30 low, erasing nearly half of the correction after its record peak.
Meanwhile, the euro is holding at 720 CUP, a price reached in the previous session. Though it has also seen some recovery, it remains far from its own peak of 800 CUP.
The Convertible Peso (MLC) has decreased in value, trading between 490-497 CUP today.
Exchange Rates on July 4, 2026 - 7:44 a.m. in Cuba
According to elTOQUE, the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar (USD) to CUP is 645 CUP.
The euro (EUR) to CUP rate stands at 720 CUP.
The MLC to CUP exchange rate is 493 CUP.
Pattern of Currency Overshooting
Analysts at elTOQUE have described the recent currency fluctuations as a recurring phenomenon in Cuba's economy since 2022.
Their analysis of currency overshooting in Cuba suggests that "when expectations shift, be it due to an economic policy announcement, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency spikes beyond what economic fundamentals justify."
The latest catalyst was the approval of 176 economic measures by the National Assembly on June 19, including the first authorization of private banking and a digital currency market since 1959.
This announcement fueled a surge in currency values to historic highs, followed by a subsequent correction.
However, elTOQUE cautions that the rebound doesn't signify genuine improvement: "Once the market fully absorbs the true impact of this change, it adjusts. But the adjustment is never complete. The new floor is higher than the previous one."
The media outlet also highlights the "herd effect" as a driver of these swings: "people buy foreign currency not because they've rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
Skepticism from Independent Economists
Independent economists are not as optimistic about the regime's measures as some sectors might suggest.
Economist Pedro Monreal González labeled the 176-measure package as a "monstrosity" or "deformed hybrid," bluntly stating, "the numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like it's not a math problem, but a matter of will."
Pavel Vidal, a specialist from the Observatory of Currencies and Finances (OMFi), agrees that "Cuban exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on waves of optimism or pessimism," without any structural changes underpinning them.
The Cuban Peso: A Six-Year Free Fall
The backdrop to these upheavals is bleak. In 2020, the dollar was valued at 42 CUP in the informal market.
By January 2026, it had reached 435 CUP. On June 21 of this year, it peaked at 695 CUP.
In just six years, the Cuban peso has lost over 95% of its value.
elTOQUE sums it up clearly: "this direction is driven by the real scarcity of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, fiscal deficits, and structural distrust in the Cuban peso. Until these conditions change, the rate will continue to rise."
Pavel Vidal, for his part, warned that "restoring trust, certainty, and hope will be challenging."
Currency Equivalencies
Equivalence of U.S. Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), based on July 4 exchange rates:
1 USD = 620 CUP.
5 USD = 3,100 CUP.
10 USD = 6,200 CUP.
20 USD = 12,400 CUP.
50 USD = 31,000 CUP.
100 USD = 62,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 700 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,500 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,000 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,000 CUP.
50 EUR = 35,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 70,000 CUP.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Fluctuations
What caused the recent surge in the U.S. dollar in Cuba?
The recent surge in the U.S. dollar in Cuba's informal market was triggered by the approval of 176 economic measures by the National Assembly, including the authorization of private banking and a digital currency market, which fueled expectations and pushed currency values to new highs.
How has the Cuban peso performed over the past six years?
Over the past six years, the Cuban peso has experienced a dramatic loss in value, dropping more than 95% from its 2020 exchange rate with the U.S. dollar in the informal market.
What is the impact of currency fluctuations on the Cuban population?
Currency fluctuations in Cuba significantly impact the population, as many Cubans depend on the exchange rate to maintain their purchasing power in an economy marked by scarcity, inflation, and fiscal deficits.