In a surprising turn of events, the U.S. dollar has reversed its previous downward trend in Cuba's informal market, showing an unexpected resurgence as of this Wednesday, according to data from elTOQUE.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) also continues its upward trajectory, strengthening its position in the market.
At 7:00 a.m. local time in Cuba, the dollar was averaging a street sale price of 610 CUP, regaining exactly what it lost the day before.
Meanwhile, the MLC climbed five units, now standing at 500 CUP.
The euro, on the other hand, has remained stable for the third consecutive day, holding steady at 700 CUP.
Current Exchange Rates in Cuba: July 1, 2026
As of 7:41 a.m., the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar to CUP, according to elTOQUE, is 610 CUP.
The euro is valued at 700 CUP, and the MLC is at 500 CUP as per elTOQUE's data.
Post-Crash Rebound in Currency Values
This uptick comes after a sustained correction beginning on June 21, when the dollar reached an all-time high of 695 CUP, with the euro nearly hitting 800 CUP.
Since those peaks, the dollar had plummeted by 90 pesos, reaching 605 CUP by Tuesday. The most significant drop occurred on June 26, when the dollar fell to 670 CUP and the euro to 770 CUP. Two days later, both currencies adjusted to 610 CUP and 700 CUP, respectively—a pattern that repeats amid today's rebound.
Notably, the official exchange rate from the Central Bank of Cuba is set at 589 CUP per dollar, lower than the 610 CUP found in the informal market.
Examining the "Overshooting" Phenomenon
On Tuesday, the independent media outlet elTOQUE released an analysis of the overshooting phenomenon in Cuba's currency market, offering insight into the trends of recent weeks.
The analysis suggests that this pattern aligns with an economic theory mechanism: "In the face of changing expectations—whether from economic policy announcements, rumors, or a crisis of confidence—the foreign currency price surges beyond what real economic fundamentals justify."
The subsequent correction is also not straightforward: "Once the market fully processes the true extent of the change, it adjusts. However, the correction is never complete, leaving a new, higher floor."
elTOQUE also highlights the "herd effect": "People purchase foreign currency not through rational evaluation of the context, but because they see others buying, and fear of missing out drives the price up."
When that momentum fades, a "reality check" occurs—a correction not because the economy has improved, but because the market was overbought.
The Government's Measures and Skepticism from Economists
Two factors are identified as potential triggers for the prior downward shift before today's rebound: a package of 176 economic measures approved on June 19 by the National Assembly—which includes private banking authorization and a digital exchange market—and President Díaz-Canel's consultation with a group of critical economists.
Independent economists remain skeptical. Pedro Monreal González described the 176 measures as a "monstrosity" or "a deformed hybrid," warning that "the numbers don't add up, and the government wants to pretend it's not a mathematical issue, but one of will."
Economist Pavel Vidal, leading the Observatory of Currencies and Finances (OMFi), noted that "Cuba's currency markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism," cautioning that "regaining trust, certainty, and hope will be challenging."
An Irreversible Decline
elTOQUE is clear about the limitations of any correction: "The direction depends on real currency shortages, triple-digit inflation, fiscal deficit, and structural distrust in the Cuban peso. Until these conditions change, the rate will continue to rise."
The numbers support this analysis: in 2020, the dollar was valued at 42 CUP; by January 2026, it had reached 435 CUP; and on June 21, it soared to 695 CUP.
The Cuban peso has lost over 95% of its value in just six years, a spiral that no brief five-peso rebound can reverse.
Currency Equivalence as of July 1
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) equivalence:
- 1 USD = 610 CUP
- 5 USD = 3050 CUP
- 10 USD = 6100 CUP
- 20 USD = 12,200 CUP
- 50 USD = 30,500 CUP
- 100 USD = 61,000 CUP
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP) equivalence:
- 1 EUR = 700 CUP
- 5 EUR = 3,500 CUP
- 10 EUR = 7,000 CUP
- 20 EUR = 14,000 CUP
- 50 EUR = 35,000 CUP
- 100 EUR = 70,000 CUP
Understanding Currency Trends in Cuba
Why is the U.S. dollar rising in Cuba's informal market?
The rise in the U.S. dollar in Cuba's informal market is attributed to a correction following a sharp drop, influenced by changing economic expectations and the "herd effect" among currency buyers.
What are the current exchange rates for the euro in Cuba?
As of July 1, 2026, the euro is trading at 700 CUP in Cuba's informal market.
What factors are affecting Cuba's currency market?
Factors influencing Cuba's currency market include economic measures by the government, changing expectations, the scarcity of foreign currency, and structural distrust in the Cuban peso.