The Cuban black market for foreign exchange experienced diverging trends this Tuesday: the US dollar decreased in value, while the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) saw an increase.
The US dollar fell by five pesos, reaching 605 Cuban pesos (CUP), whereas the MLC rose by five pesos to reach 495 CUP.
Meanwhile, the euro remained stable at 700 CUP, maintaining the level it reached on Monday.
The dollar has been on a downward trajectory for five consecutive days, accumulating a loss of 90 CUP since the record highs on June 21.
Trading Ranges Among Individuals
The reference exchange rates do not encompass the entire market: prices vary widely among sellers and buyers, illustrating the hesitation of some traders to adapt to the new levels.
Recent data from the independent outlet elTOQUE shows the following trading ranges:
- EUR: 630 to 790 CUP
- USD: 550 to 680 CUP
- MLC: 380 to 600 CUP
A Continued Correction from Record Highs
The turning point of this downward trend occurred on June 21, when the dollar reached 695 CUP and the euro hit 800 CUP, both at historical peaks.
The first indication of change came on June 23, when the MLC independently dropped by 25 pesos to 485 CUP. On June 25, all three currencies experienced a simultaneous decline, each falling by 10 pesos.
It is worth noting that elTOQUE had anticipated a ceiling of 650 CUP for the dollar throughout June, but this threshold was surpassed on June 12, more than two weeks earlier than expected.
The 176 Measures and Economists' Skepticism
Two primary factors are considered potential catalysts for the downward shift.
The first is a package of 176 economic measures approved on June 19 by the National Assembly, introduced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz. This includes the authorization of private banks and exchange houses, along with a digital currency market involving currency auctions.
The second factor is Miguel Díaz-Canel's assembly of a group of critical economists, including Juan Triana, Julio Carranza, and Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva.
However, independent economists remain skeptical. Pedro Monreal González described the 176 measures as a "monstrosity" or "deformed hybrid," warning that "the math doesn't add up, and the government wants to pretend it's not a mathematical issue, but one of will."
Simultaneously, five independent economists, including Monreal, have been working since March 2026 on the Cuba Transformation project. This initiative, independent of the regime, aims for a "social market economy, grounded in a democratic rule of law."
The current correction does not hide the extent of the accumulated deterioration. In 2020, the dollar was valued at 42 CUP in the informal market; by January 2026, it had reached 435 CUP; and on June 21, it soared to 695 CUP.
The Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value in just six years, amidst fuel shortages, chronic blackouts, and rampant inflation.
Understanding Cuba's Economic Challenges
What caused the recent changes in Cuba's black market currency values?
The changes are attributed to a package of 176 economic measures approved by the Cuban government and the involvement of a group of critical economists, which have impacted market dynamics.
How significant is the value loss of the Cuban peso?
The Cuban peso has lost over 95% of its value in the past six years, reflecting severe economic deterioration due to factors like inflation and fuel shortages.