On Sunday, the U.S. dollar fell to 610 Cuban pesos (CUP) in Cuba's informal market, as reported by the independent outlet elTOQUE. This marks a significant correction, wiping out 85 pesos in just a week from its historical peak of 695 CUP reached on June 21.
The depreciation isn't limited to the dollar alone. The euro also saw a drop, sliding 20 pesos to 700 CUP on Sunday, culminating in a total loss of 100 pesos from its previous high of 800 CUP. Meanwhile, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) remains steady at 490 CUP without significant changes from the prior day.
Other Currency Fluctuations
Several other currencies have also declined. The Canadian dollar fell to 433.74 CUP (-10.43), Zelle is quoted at 654.33 CUP (-3.81), and CLA dropped to 566.85 CUP (-16.69). Interestingly, the Mexican peso is the exception, experiencing a slight increase to 44.54 CUP.
This adjustment follows an unprecedented surge throughout June. At the start of the month, the dollar was valued at 585 CUP and the euro at 645 CUP. Within three weeks, both currencies skyrocketed, with increases of 18.8% and 24%, respectively, defying all analyst predictions.
Breaking Projections and Market Dynamics
elTOQUE's Currency and Finance Observatory (OMfi) had initially projected a cap of 650 CUP for the dollar for the entire month. However, this threshold was surpassed on June 12, more than two weeks ahead of schedule.
The first signs of a downturn appeared on June 23, when the MLC independently fell by 25 pesos, while the dollar and euro remained at their peaks. Just two days later, a simultaneous drop of all three currencies occurred after many months, with the dollar dropping to 670 CUP and the euro to 770 CUP by Friday.
Despite the correction, the market remains fragmented. Active offers show a wide range reflecting some sellers' resistance: the dollar trades between 600 and 735 CUP, the euro between 700 and 880 CUP, and the MLC between 400 and 570 CUP.
elTOQUE's analysis cautions that "sooner or later, sellers will have to yield if they see that the rest of the market offers the dollar at a lower price and that no one is willing to pay the high price anymore."
Potential Causes Behind the Shift
Two main factors could be influencing this change. The first is the set of 176 economic measures approved on June 19 by the National Assembly, which includes the authorization of private banks and exchange houses, and the establishment of a digital currency exchange market with currency auctions.
The second factor is the unprecedented calling of a group of critical economists by Miguel Díaz-Canel for advisory purposes.
Nevertheless, independent economists remain skeptical. Pedro Monreal González bluntly stated, "The numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like it's not a matter of math, but of will."
Efforts Towards Economic Reform
Meanwhile, five independent economists have been working since March on the "Cuba Transformation" project, an independent reform proposal aimed at "a social market economy, supported by a democratic state governed by the rule of law," separate from the regime.
The severity of the monetary crisis remains unprecedented: in 2020, the dollar traded at 42 CUP in the informal market; by January 2026, it had reached 435 CUP, and on June 21, it hit 695 CUP.
The Cuban peso has lost over 95% of its value in six years, and this week's correction, as pronounced as it may be, doesn't change that structural landscape.
Understanding the Currency Fluctuations in Cuba
What caused the recent drop in the value of the dollar in Cuba?
The decline in the dollar's value is attributed to a correction following a rapid increase in June, alongside economic measures approved by the National Assembly and advisory efforts by economists.
How did the euro perform in the recent currency trend in Cuba?
The euro dropped by 20 pesos to 700 CUP, accumulating a loss of 100 pesos from its previous high, indicating a consistent downward trend along with other currencies.
What role did economic policies play in the currency fluctuations?
Economic policies, including the approval of private banks and exchange houses and the creation of a digital currency market, are contributing factors to the shifts observed in currency values.