The General Director of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, Engineer Lázaro Guerra Hernández, issued a warning this Saturday about the ongoing power outages in Cuba. He stated that these outages are expected to reach 2,165 MW during the nighttime peak, a figure nearly identical to Friday's maximum impact of 2,149 MW.
Speaking from the National Load Dispatch Center during Canal Caribe's regular morning briefing, Guerra Hernández explained that the system currently has a mere 1,015 MW available, compared to a projected maximum demand of 3,150 MW.
"For this afternoon, we're forecasting 1,600 MW for the system's peak demand, with only 1,015 MW available against a 3,150 MW projected maximum demand, leading to an impact of 2,165 MW," the official specified.
Struggling Power Infrastructure
As of 7:30 a.m. this Saturday, the power deficit was already close to 1,800 MW, as reported by journalist Bernardo Espinosa from the same dispatch center.
The outlook for the day is bleak: three generating units are out due to malfunctions, and another five are undergoing scheduled maintenance. "No new generating units will be added today," Guerra Hernández confirmed.
The only potential positive development involves the Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Plant, the country's largest power generator, which is experiencing its 16th malfunction of the year.
Repair work on the boiler was wrapping up in the morning, with a hydraulic test in progress. However, the entire process—including five to six hours of testing and approximately eight hours for startup—prevents the unit from being available for Saturday's night peak. The expectation is for Guiteras to rejoin base generation on Sunday, assuming the tests are successful.
Transformer Challenges and Theft
During the same briefing, Engineer Rubén Campos Olmos, General Director of the Electrical Union, addressed another critical issue: transformers.
He noted that the country operates more than 185,000 of these devices, with a domestic production capacity of around 70 units daily, distributed among plants in Havana, Santa Clara, and Manzanillo.
Despite these efforts, Campos Olmos acknowledged the challenges: "We are fully aware of these impacts and will work in coordination with all provinces to recover the transformer deficit within a timeframe that we might consider reasonable."
Campos Olmos also described a worsening phenomenon: when a circuit is without electricity for many hours and service is restored, the accumulated demand may exceed the transformer's capacity, causing damage.
Additionally, transformers over 75 KVA are not manufactured in Cuba and must be either repaired or imported, both of which face severe limitations.
Campos Olmos highlighted another pressing issue: the theft of dielectric oil from transformers, classified as sabotage. "When this liquid is stolen, the transformer often gets damaged but immediately goes offline because it's essential," he warned, noting that downstream areas like hospitals, production centers, and entire communities could be left without power.
Historical Deficit and Long-term Solutions
This situation unfolds just two days after Cuba recorded an all-time high in electrical deficit: 2,208 MW on June 25 at 8:50 p.m., surpassing the previous peak of 2,174 MW on May 14.
Communities in Matanzas endured up to 85 consecutive hours without electricity during this period.
The crisis has deep structural roots that have worsened by 2026: 106 distributed generation plants remain inactive due to diesel shortages, representing 890 MW lost in the system. Simultaneously, strategic facilities offline due to fuel shortages account for another 1,203 MW unavailable.
Experts estimate that restoring Cuba's electrical system would require between 8,000 and 10,000 million dollars and three to five years of work.
Understanding Cuba's Power Grid Crisis
What is the main cause of the power outages in Cuba?
The power outages are primarily due to damaged transformers and diesel shortages, which have severely impacted the power generation capacity.
How long could it take to restore the power system in Cuba?
Experts estimate that restoring the power system could take between three to five years and require an investment of 8,000 to 10,000 million dollars.
What are the challenges with transformers in Cuba?
Cuba faces challenges with transformers due to a limited production capacity, the need for imports or repairs for large units, and issues like theft of dielectric oil.