On Friday, the informal market in Cuba experienced a second consecutive day of simultaneous declines in the three main reference currencies, with more pronounced decreases than those observed the previous day.
The U.S. dollar fell by 15 Cuban pesos, reaching 670 CUP, according to data from elTOQUE.
Meanwhile, the euro dropped 20 pesos, settling at 770 CUP.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) also saw a reduction of 10 pesos, dropping to 490 CUP.
Worsening Trends in Currency Values
Thursday had already marked a turning point, as it was the first day in many months where all three currencies decreased simultaneously, each by 10 pesos.
This Friday, the trend accelerated, particularly for the euro, which has seen a 40-peso drop in just two days.
Current offers show wide-ranging prices, indicating some sellers' reluctance to lower their rates. The dollar is being traded between 600 and 735 CUP, the euro between 700 and 880 CUP, and the MLC between 400 and 570 CUP.
elTOQUE's analysis warns that "sooner or later, sellers will have to lower their prices if the rest of the market offers cheaper dollars and no one is willing to pay the higher rates."
Correction After Historic Highs
This two-day drop follows an unprecedented surge throughout June. The dollar began the month at 585 CUP, and the euro at 645 CUP. Within just three weeks, both currencies soared by 18.8% and 24%, respectively, reaching their all-time highs on June 21: 695 CUP for the dollar and 800 CUP for the euro.
The elTOQUE Currency and Finance Observatory (OMfi) had predicted a ceiling of 650 CUP for the dollar for the entire month, but that barrier was surpassed on June 12, more than two weeks earlier than anticipated.
The first sign of weakness emerged on June 23, when the MLC independently fell by 25 pesos to 485 CUP, while the dollar and euro remained at record levels. Two days later, all three currencies collectively dropped for the first time.
Factors Behind the Shift
Two factors might be influencing this change in trend. First is the package of 176 economic measures approved on June 19 by the National Assembly. These measures include authorizing private banks and exchange houses, private remittance operators, and a digital currency exchange market with currency auctions.
The second factor is an unprecedented advisory group of critical economists convened by Miguel Díaz-Canel, including Juan Triana, Julio Carranza, and Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva.
However, independent economists remain skeptical. Pedro Monreal González stated, "The numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like it's not a mathematical problem, but one of will."
Five independent economists, including Pedro Monreal, have been working since March on the Cuba Transformation project, a comprehensive reform proposal independent of the regime that aims for "a social market economy, grounded in a democratic rule of law."
Ongoing Monetary Crisis
Despite the recent corrections, Cuba's monetary crisis remains historically severe. In 2020, the dollar traded at 42 CUP in the informal market; by January 2026, it had reached 435 CUP; and on June 21, it hit 695 CUP. The Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value in six years.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Crisis
What caused the recent drop in currency values in Cuba?
The recent decline can be attributed to two key factors: the approval of a comprehensive package of economic measures by the National Assembly and the assembly of an advisory group of critical economists. These actions have likely influenced market perceptions and prompted currency fluctuations.
How have currency values changed in Cuba over recent years?
Currency values in Cuba have seen dramatic changes, with the dollar trading at 42 CUP in 2020 and reaching 695 CUP by June 2023. This represents a significant depreciation of the Cuban peso, losing over 95% of its value in six years.