Ricardo Zúñiga, who served as a chief advisor on Western Hemisphere affairs during Barack Obama's presidency and played a key role in the 2014 diplomatic thaw between Washington and Havana, has issued a stark warning about the future of U.S.-Cuba relations.
Zúñiga suggests there is a significant chance that the United States might resort to military action against Cuba if current communication channels collapse completely due to the lack of diplomatic progress.
Potential Consequences of Diplomatic Failures
The former U.S. diplomat shared his concerns during an interview with journalist Gloria Ordaz on Telemundo 51’s program Encuentro Virtual. This conversation happened amidst escalating tensions as Washington tightens its sanctions and bilateral talks fail to yield tangible outcomes.
Without mincing words, Zúñiga painted a grim picture of what could happen if diplomacy fails. "Given the current circumstances, my fear is that frustration on the U.S. side over the perceived lack of progress in talks could lead to a decision to take military action," he stated bluntly.
Zúñiga clarified that any military action would not involve ground troops but could involve air strikes. He emphasized, however, that such measures would not be the ideal solution to the island's crisis. "It's not an invasion; it would be an airstrike," he specified, adding, "Yes, it's possible, and I believe it's likely to end that way."
Limitations and Risks of Military Action
The former White House advisor acknowledged the limitations of such an operation, admitting that bombing alone wouldn't solve the issue, as it wouldn't guarantee political changes or a stable democratic transition.
Zúñiga stressed that his assessment is personal and not an official stance. Nonetheless, his insights carry undeniable weight, coming from someone who spent months secretly negotiating with the Cuban regime and understands the inner workings of its leadership.
Rethinking U.S. Strategy Towards Cuba
Zúñiga criticized the Trump administration's strategy of indefinitely squeezing the Cuban economy, suggesting it has reached its limit and could become counterproductive, harming the Cuban populace.
He argued that Washington has accumulated enough political and economic leverage to engage in meaningful negotiations with Havana and should pivot towards direct diplomacy. "If the Trump administration needs leverage, they have it; they have what it takes to persuade," he asserted.
As evidence of this pressure's effectiveness, Zúñiga noted that Cuban authorities have announced, though not yet executed, actions they previously refused to discuss, indicating the current pressure has opened cracks in the regime's historical intransigence.
Power Dynamics Within the Cuban Regime
Analyzing the internal power structure sustaining the regime during this extreme crisis, Zúñiga highlighted the true fears of the ruling elite. He noted that their greatest fear is not financial collapse but losing absolute political control and facing personal consequences, such as imprisonment in the U.S.
When asked about figures like Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, nicknamed "El Cangrejo," Zúñiga dispelled myths about their influence, asserting, "Does he run Cuba? No, he doesn’t."
Instead, he described Cuba's governance as a corporate-like consortium involving the Armed Forces, the Ministry of the Interior, and the Communist Party. Thus, any serious negotiation with Washington must involve a collective delegation representing these entities, which are truly in control.
Historical Context and Current Challenges
Reflecting on the secret talks in 2014, Zúñiga revealed that Alejandro Castro Espín, a colonel and son of Raúl Castro, led Cuba's delegation. He characterized Castro Espín as ideologically rigid, aligned with Fidel Castro's government, and holding views incompatible with U.S. perspectives.
Ironically, Castro Espín and his wife are now sanctioned by the U.S., as official channels close once more.
Finally, Zúñiga contrasted today's dire situation in Cuba with the conditions at the end of Obama's term, concluding that the island is now in a position of extreme weakness with little room for maneuver. He criticized the Cuban leadership for squandering opportunities from the previous thaw.
"They made the wrong choices after President Obama's opening," he stated. "Now they must improve conditions for the populace with measures they previously resisted, which might not even suffice now."
Zúñiga emphasized the difficulty for the U.S. in negotiating with a government that fears losing everything and lacks internal solutions to improve the country's situation. Meanwhile, pessimism is growing in Havana, with the regime admitting limited progress in technical talks and acknowledging the looming threat of military action.
Understanding U.S.-Cuba Relations
Why might the U.S. consider military action against Cuba?
The U.S. may consider military action if diplomatic channels fail completely and frustration grows due to a perceived lack of progress in talks with Cuba.
What is Ricardo Zúñiga's view on the effectiveness of military action?
Zúñiga believes that military action, such as airstrikes, would not be a definitive solution as it wouldn't ensure political change or a stable democratic transition in Cuba.
What does Zúñiga suggest as an alternative to military action?
Zúñiga suggests shifting towards direct diplomacy, as the U.S. already has sufficient political and economic leverage to engage in meaningful negotiations with Havana.