The Cuban economist Mauricio de Miranda, a member of the Cuba Transformación group, issued a warning on Monday. He stated that the economic reforms proposed by the Díaz-Canel regime could lead Cuba down a path similar to the authoritarian and patrimonial capitalism that emerged in Russia after the Soviet Union's collapse, should these reforms proceed without democratic political changes.
Miranda highlights a fundamental risk that remains unaddressed by the government. "What laws, what regulations, what transparency mechanisms will be in place? How will we prevent public resources from being captured by a select group connected to power, or by those who have gained wealth through ties to authority?" Miranda questioned during an interview with Tania Costa on CiberCuba.
The economist's analysis targets the political system directly. "The danger of these transformations occurring under an authoritarian, one-party regime devoid of democracy—and therefore lacking social oversight—is that it could create conditions for the state to be captured by oligarchic groups linked to family ties with power structures and the bureaucratic class that has led the country for years," he asserted.
Miranda dismisses comparisons to the Soviet Perestroika. "Some people think this is Perestroika. It's not. Perestroika was entirely different," he clarified, emphasizing that what's emerging is a leap into authoritarian and patrimonial capitalism akin to that established in Russia during Yeltsin's era, which continues under Putin.
This risk isn't merely theoretical. The conglomerate GAESA, controlled by the Cuban military and sanctioned by the U.S. for allegedly holding $18 billion in assets, is notably absent from Díaz-Canel's 176 measures, a point heavily criticized by independent economists.
The package, approved on June 19 in the National Assembly, controversially includes transforming state enterprises into joint-stock companies, potentially allowing private, non-state, and foreign entities to purchase shares.
The Food Monitor Program also warned of crony capitalism if state enterprise shares are sold without transparent bidding processes, echoing Miranda's cautionary statements.
Miranda is part of Cuba Transformación, a collective of five independent economists supported by the Cuba Study Group—alongside Pedro Monreal, Pavel Vidal, Omar Everleny, and Ricardo Torres. Since March 2026, they have been developing a proposal to extricate Cuba from its crisis through three phases: emergency stabilization, productive and institutional recovery, and medium-to-long-term development.
This group advocates for a social market economy model. However, Miranda stresses that this model must be realized within a political and institutional framework characteristic of a democratic rule of law.
Cuba Transformación operates independently of the government and isn't involved with the advisory team convened by Díaz-Canel on June 17, although one member, Omar Everleny, was invited as an external advisor by the regime.
The comprehensive proposal for the initial stabilization phase, aimed at a two to three-year timeline, was expected to be published shortly after the interview.
Understanding the Risks of Cuba's Economic Reforms
Why does Mauricio de Miranda believe the reforms could lead to oligarchy?
De Miranda warns that without democratic political changes, the reforms could create conditions for a state capture by oligarchic groups linked to power, similar to post-Soviet Russia.
How does the GAESA conglomerate factor into the concerns?
GAESA, controlled by Cuba's military and sanctioned by the U.S., is not addressed in the reform measures, raising concerns about transparency and accountability in economic transitions.
What is the proposed alternative by Cuba Transformación?
The group suggests a social market economy model, emphasizing the necessity of implementing it within a democratic and lawful political environment.