Cuban Military Attempts to Showcase Strength, Reveals Its Decline Instead

A recent analysis by CNN has exposed the current state of the Cuban military, highlighting significant deterioration. Despite the regime's efforts to portray a strong image through numerous videos and photos released over recent months, these materials reveal an army struggling with outdated Soviet-era equipment and insufficient fuel for its aircraft.

Frank Mora, an expert in Cuban politics, shared with CNN that these visual materials are crafted to project defiance rather than actual capability. Mora stated, "In the past 35 years, there's no doubt that what was once a first-world military has become, at best, a shadow of its former self."

The contrast with the past is stark. During the early 1990s, the Revolutionary Armed Forces boasted over 235,000 active personnel and top-notch Soviet weaponry, earning the reputation of being a "first-world military in a third-world country" among analysts of that era.

The Decline of Cuban Military Forces

Currently, estimates suggest that the number of active forces has dwindled to a maximum of 50,000, a significant drop to less than a quarter of its peak strength.

The deterioration is vividly depicted in footage analyzed by CNN. During military exercises in Villa Clara in April, a Soviet-era ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun was hauled by oxen, leading to mockery on social media.

Outdated Equipment and New Strategies

Other clips feature dilapidated military trucks, Cold War-era Russian anti-aircraft systems, and special forces using zip lines near civilian taxis and motorcycles.

Unable to maintain a competitive conventional force, Cuban military planners have adopted an "hedgehog strategy," as described by retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian. This involves training in asymmetrical guerrilla tactics to maximize the cost of any invasion attempt.

Recent videos show soldiers on motorcycles with grenade launchers, trenches dug into the ground, and armored transports camouflaged in the jungle. The elite Avispas Negras unit, comparable to the Navy SEALs, is shown practicing martial arts solo on an asphalt court marked for four-square. The video caption asserts, "Prepared to defend the homeland."

Challenges Facing the Cuban Air Force

The Air Force is in an even more dire situation. Cold War-era MiG fighters are nearly inoperable due to a lack of parts and fuel. The only visible assets in public releases are Soviet-designed Mi-17 helicopters, used for low-risk missions. As Mora noted, "It's challenging to fly a fourth-generation Russian fighter without gasoline."

In May, Axios reported that Cuba had allegedly acquired over 300 military drones from Russia and Iran since 2023. The regime vehemently denied this report, though the Ministry of the Armed Forces (MINFAR) did not explicitly refute it.

Cancian warned that even if these drones exist, they would only provide a temporary boost in offensive capability, leaving the regime without options for sustained response.

U.S. Pressure and Historical Rhetoric

This situation unfolds amid unprecedented American pressure. The Trump administration imposed over 240 sanctions against Cuba, intercepted at least seven tankers, and directly sanctioned MINFAR, along with Miguel Díaz-Canel and his close associates.

On June 10, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth visited the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, warning that it would be "reckless" for Cuba to acquire weaponry capable of reaching the base or the U.S. mainland.

The regime's rhetoric mirrors that of dictator Fidel Castro since 1990, when he declared that Cuba would prefer to become another "Numancia" rather than surrender. In April, Díaz-Canel echoed this script to Newsweek, stating, "If we fall in combat, dying for the homeland is living." Mora concludes that the current Cuban leadership follows this same narrative, making it clear that they are prepared to fight to the end, despite lacking capabilities.