Cuban economist and journalist Miguel Alejandro Hayes has raised concerns that the 176 economic measures recently approved by Cuba's National Assembly on June 18 and 19 do not constitute a genuine development plan. Instead, he sees them as a political survival strategy by the regime.
According to Hayes, the dictatorship's severe credibility crisis has forced it to seek mechanisms to regain political dominance, rather than genuinely improving the living conditions of the Cuban people.
"The regime aims to reconstruct the social and political pact that sustains Castroism by creating economic opportunities designed to garner complicity in exchange for political loyalty," the analyst stated.
The package, presented by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero to Parliament, includes the authorization of private banking, private exchange houses, the removal of the cap on 100 employees for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), allowing individuals to own multiple businesses, and a broader opening to foreign investment, including by Cubans living abroad.
However, Hayes was clear in asserting that none of these measures represent a genuine opening to a free market: "The regime can never allow free enterprise for its own survival."
The analyst explained that in recent years, a murky process of transferring state and military assets to the private sector has developed, enabling an unidentified elite to manage significant import volumes under a strict "legal shield."
In this framework, the barriers to economic activity will not disappear with the new rules: "They will never remove the entry barriers to economic activity; any legal business on the island will remain conditioned by clientelism and political silence," he emphasized.
This interpretation aligns with Hayes' previous analyses. In a prior assessment of GAESA, Hayes had warned that dismantling the military conglomerate would not suffice to dismantle the regime's economic power, as it can recreate equivalent structures in less than 24 hours.
External reactions to the package of measures were broadly skeptical. The United States described them as "superficial smoke signals," arguing that they do not signify a real change in the political model.
Manuel Marrero himself admitted before the Assembly that implementing the reforms would generate "contradictions" that the government would need to resolve "on the fly," a concession that bolsters Hayes' thesis about the improvised and politically driven nature of the package.
While the regime presents the 176 measures as the most significant economic opening in decades, the state's monopoly over the Cuban economy—and over who can participate in it—remains unchanged, according to the economist's analysis.
Understanding the Economic Measures in Cuba
What are the new economic measures in Cuba?
The new economic measures include the authorization of private banking, private exchange houses, lifting the employee cap for SMEs, allowing multiple business ownership by individuals, and increasing foreign investment opportunities.
Why does Hayes believe these measures are politically motivated?
Hayes believes these measures are politically motivated because they aim to reconstruct the social and political pact that sustains the regime, by offering economic opportunities to secure political loyalty rather than genuinely improving the Cuban economy.
How did the international community react to these measures?
The international community, particularly the United States, reacted skeptically, dismissing the measures as superficial and not indicative of a real change in Cuba's political model.