On Sunday, Cuba's informal currency market reached unprecedented highs: the dollar soared to 695 Cuban pesos (CUP) and the euro breached the 800 CUP mark for the first time, according to figures released by elTOQUE. Meanwhile, the freely convertible currency (MLC) stood at 510 CUP.
Compared to Saturday, the dollar rose by two pesos, closing at 693 CUP, and the euro jumped five pesos from 795 CUP. Both currencies shattered psychological barriers that seemed unbreakable just a day earlier.
Escalating Currency Rates in Cuba
The pace of increase throughout June has been relentless. The dollar began the month at 585 CUP, climbing 110 pesos in just 21 days, marking an over 18% rise. The euro, starting at 645 CUP on June 1, surged by 155 pesos, reflecting a more than 23% increase in the same timeframe.
The rapid depreciation exceeded all expectations: the Observatorio de Monedas y Finanzas (OMFi) at elTOQUE had projected a ceiling of 650 CUP for the dollar throughout June, a level that was surpassed as early as June 12, with 18 days to go.
Stark Contrast with Official Rates
The disparity with official rates is staggering. The Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) sets the dollar at 565 CUP and the euro at 647 CUP through CADECA. Those purchasing dollars in the informal market are paying over 120 pesos more than the state-sanctioned rate.
The announcement of 176 economic measures by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz to the National Assembly on June 19—touted as the largest economic reform package since the Special Period, including private banking, private exchange houses, and currency auctions—failed to ease the pressure on currencies, as the informal market continued to climb following the announcement.
Internal Acknowledgment Amid Crisis
Even Miguel Díaz-Canel admitted before the National Assembly that "there are obstacles that do not come from outside or from the embargo," a rare acknowledgment of internal accountability amidst the crisis.
Economist Elías Amor warned that the fiscal deficit exceeds 12% of GDP and was unequivocal about the near future: "No foreign currency will enter Cuba in the coming months." He added, "The issue is that needs can be met with foreign currency, and people will be willing to pay whatever it takes for it," forecasting sustained upward pressure.
Historically, the collapse of the peso is catastrophic: in 2020, the dollar traded at around 42 CUP in the informal market. This Sunday's rate of 695 CUP represents a loss of over 95% of the peso's value in just six years.
The euro, which reached 500 CUP in October 2025—a record at the time—has since climbed an additional 300 pesos in less than a year.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Crisis
Why are the dollar and euro rising in Cuba's informal market?
The rise in the dollar and euro is driven by increased demand and limited supply in the informal market, exacerbated by economic instability and lack of foreign currency influx into Cuba.
How does the informal market rate compare to official rates in Cuba?
The informal market rates are significantly higher than the official rates set by the Central Bank of Cuba, with disparities exceeding 120 pesos for the dollar and similar gaps for the euro.
What impact do the new economic reforms have on currency rates?
Despite the announcement of new economic reforms, including private banking and exchange houses, the informal market has continued to see rising currency rates, indicating that these measures have not yet alleviated market pressures.