Ileana Díaz Fernández, an economist and researcher from the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy at the University of Havana, expressed criticism on Friday regarding the pace and design of a newly approved package of 176 reforms by the Cuban regime. She highlighted the "fast track" manner in which they were announced and approved as a sign of desperation.
The reform package, which comprises 23 strategic areas, was ratified by the National Assembly on June 18 after a swift six-day process. This followed an announcement by President Miguel Díaz-Canel on June 12, endorsement by the Central Committee of the Communist Party on June 17, and subsequent approval by the National Assembly of People's Power the next day.
In a commentary titled "What Now?" published on her Facebook profile, Díaz acknowledged the value of the reforms, which include the introduction of private banking, transformation of state-owned enterprises into commercial entities, and lifting the cap of 100 workers for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). However, she pointed out that five years of more favorable conditions to implement these measures were squandered.
"Most of these measures have been proposed over several years and were previously dismissed as capitalist or 'not timely,'" wrote Díaz, who also coordinates the Entrepreneurship and Innovation Network at the University of Havana.
She recalled that similar proposals to those in her book "Cuban State Enterprises: Situation and Transformation Proposal" (2024), which was awarded by the Cuban Academy of Sciences, were once labeled as neoliberal.
Díaz identified four urgent issues that should drive change: the food crisis, the healthcare crisis—which is notably absent from the package—the energy crisis, and the currency crisis.
Urgent Priorities for Change
"All strategic areas are given equal importance," she warned, noting that this lack of prioritization was also missing in the previous government program.
Addressing the energy crisis, Díaz was straightforward in highlighting it as a genuine constraint on implementing many of the measures, pointing out that the reform package's approach to this issue is "very vague."
Díaz drew a concerning comparison regarding the model the regime seems to be following: "It seems we're heading towards a Chinese model (existence of a single party) but with a rapid Big Bang, Russian-style method," referring to the accelerated privatizations in the 1990s that led to wealth concentration among privileged sectors and oligarchs, mostly linked to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.
She summed up the paradox with a phrase capturing the sentiment of those who have long advocated for change: "Clearly, now it's Yes or Yes; there's no other option, even if it's at the worst time."
Public skepticism towards the reforms is widespread. Several followers of Díaz's publication noted that the current speed contrasts sharply with decades of inaction and questioned whether there is genuine political will to sustain the changes.
"Now they want to rush," one commenter wrote. "If this had been announced in April 2021, or even 2016, it would have given me much hope and confidence. But what Cuba needs now are profound political changes."
Another reader expressed that the "feeling of reparation is mixed with sadness" upon seeing proposals long championed by economists—who faced disparagement for them—being attempted now "under the worst circumstances."
A more skeptical voice pointed out that the history of announced but stalled reforms—such as the 2021 MSMEs—creates an "insecurity" that will hinder swift implementation. This distrust is echoed by public figures. Baritone Ulises Aquino criticized the regime's delay in making changes, while singer-songwriter Israel Rojas urged that political reforms should not be as delayed as economic ones.
Key Questions on Cuban Reforms
What are the main reforms included in the recent package?
The reforms include the introduction of private banking, the transformation of state-owned enterprises into commercial entities, and lifting the 100-worker cap for MSMEs.
Why is there skepticism about the Cuban government's reforms?
There is skepticism due to the regime's history of announcing but not implementing reforms, as well as doubts about the political will to sustain these changes.
What are the urgent issues identified by economist Ileana Díaz?
Díaz pointed out four urgent issues: the food crisis, the healthcare crisis, the energy crisis, and the currency crisis.