In a renewed focus on Cuba, President Donald Trump placed the island nation back on his geopolitical radar this past Friday. During an exclusive interview on 'The Axios Show,' he suggested that Cuba might face "the same treatment as Venezuela," emphasizing its geographical proximity: "Venezuela is relatively near, and Cuba is just a stone's throw away."
The statement emerged during a 45-minute discussion recorded in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, led by correspondent Marc Caputo. This conversation was made public shortly after Trump's return from the G7 Summit in France and the signing of a preliminary peace agreement with Iran.
When directly asked if action against Cuba could mirror the swift military operation that led to Nicolás Maduro's capture in just 48 minutes this past January, Trump replied candidly: "It's possible. These places are close. However, if you consider Iran, that's quite a distance."
Contrasting Cuba and Venezuela
Trump acknowledged a fundamental difference between the two nations: "Venezuela has oil. Cuba does not. Cuba boasts nice properties and a beautiful coastline." This comparison highlights Washington's distinct approach to Cuba compared to Caracas, where oil control was a critical factor.
The President also hinted at a potential negotiated settlement, albeit maintaining a firm tone. "We're going to involve Marco in Cuba," he stated, referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose parents are Cuban immigrants, and who, according to Trump, is "doing a great job" shaping policy towards Havana.
Ongoing Pressure on Cuba
Trump's remarks did not occur in isolation. On June 4, he vowed to address Cuba after resolving the Iranian issue, labeling the regime a "failed nation" and asserting that "the regime must go." Days later, on June 10, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a stern warning from Central Command: "Don't play that game where you're threatening Americans, because it won't end well for you." He also visited the Guantánamo Bay Naval Base that day, declaring, "Cuba's future lies in the hands of its leaders and the U.S. President."
Since January 2026, the pressure has been unprecedented: the Trump administration has levied over 240 sanctions against Cuba, including Executive Order 14404 from May 1, which imposes secondary sanctions on third parties dealing with blocked Cuban entities. Additionally, on June 11, Rubio announced sanctions against CUPET, the state oil company, freezing its assets under U.S. jurisdiction.
Impact on Cuba's Energy Crisis
This external pressure coincides with Cuba's most severe energy crisis in decades. At the beginning of this month, the Electric Union projected a generation capacity of only 1,090 MW against a demand of 3,050 MW, resulting in a 1,960 MW deficit and blackouts affecting up to 65% of the country. The decline in Venezuelan oil supply—a direct consequence of Maduro's capture—has further exacerbated an already critical situation.
The regime led by Miguel Díaz-Canel has responded with defiant rhetoric. In reaction to Trump's threats, it warned that U.S. military action could lead to a "bloodbath with unimaginable consequences" and vowed "resolute and firm combat." Yet these words starkly contrast with the reality of a nation lacking electricity, fuel, and the traditional allies that once provided support.
In a desperate move, Díaz-Canel and his top officials announced a package of 176 measures aimed at unprecedented economic liberalization. However, several analysts argue these measures come too late to address Cuba's multidimensional crisis, do not alter the dictatorial political core of the system, and could lead to an outcome similar to the Soviet Union's, where former regime elites divided properties and shares among themselves, now as capitalist owners.
Understanding the Current U.S.-Cuba Relations
How does Trump's approach to Cuba compare to his policy on Venezuela?
Trump's approach to Cuba focuses on its geographical proximity and strategic importance, whereas his policy on Venezuela heavily emphasized control over oil resources. The U.S. views both nations as significant but applies different strategic considerations to each.
What are the implications of the U.S. sanctions on Cuba?
The U.S. sanctions, including over 240 measures imposed by the Trump administration, aim to increase pressure on the Cuban regime by restricting economic activity and targeting key industries. These sanctions exacerbate the existing economic and energy crises in Cuba.
How has the Cuban government responded to the increasing U.S. pressure?
The Cuban government has responded with rhetoric of resistance, warning against U.S. military action and promising firm opposition. Additionally, it has introduced economic reforms, although these measures are seen by many analysts as insufficient and too late.