The informal currency market in Cuba remains unyielding this Friday, and the day's exchange rates reinforce that the government's announcement of 176 economic measures has failed to alleviate the pressure on the Cuban peso.
According to data from elTOQUE, the dollar has risen by five pesos and is now selling at 690 Cuban pesos (CUP).
The euro, meanwhile, has climbed to 790 CUP, maintaining a gap of 100 pesos compared to the informal dollar rate.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) holds steady at 500 CUP.
Economic Reforms Fail to Instill Trust
These figures emerge during an extraordinary period: Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz unveiled the largest economic reform package since the Special Period during an extraordinary session of the National Assembly on Thursday.
Instead of fostering confidence, the informal market responded with further increases.
Current Exchange Rates
The dollar trades at a representative rate of 690 CUP, though private transactions range from 620 to 765 CUP, highlighting the current uncertainty.
The euro faces the most pressure: at 790 CUP, it is perilously close to the psychological barrier of 800 pesos, with informal offers ranging from 760 to 820 CUP.
The MLC remains at 500 CUP for the second day in a row, with transactions between 400 and 570 CUP.
Regionally, Havana reports the highest dollar rate at 681 CUP, while the Isla de la Juventud records the lowest at 570 CUP. Villa Clara experiences the most significant daily change, with an increase of 32 CUP from Thursday.
Widening Gap Between Informal and Official Rates
The disparity between the informal market and official rates continues to grow. The Central Bank of Cuba sets the dollar at 573 CUP (selling) and the euro at 657 CUP (selling) through CADECA, meaning street buyers pay over 115 pesos above the government rate.
The dollar started June at 585 CUP, and in just 19 days, it has risen by more than 17%.
The Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi) of elTOQUE had forecast a ceiling of 650 CUP for the entire month; this limit was breached on June 12, 18 days earlier than expected.
In 2020, the dollar traded at about 42 CUP in the informal market; this Friday, it stands at 690 CUP, marking a loss of more than 95% of the peso's value over six years.
Market Skepticism Toward New Measures
The package introduced by Marrero Cruz includes unprecedented measures: the authorization of private banking for the first time since 1959, the creation of private exchange houses with real-time digital currency markets, foreign currency auctions, the removal of the 100-worker limit for small and medium enterprises, and the potential for state companies to become joint-stock corporations.
Additionally, there is an announced increase in the minimum wage from 2,100 to 3,210 CUP—a 53% hike—set to take effect on July 1, 2026.
Public reaction has been broadly skeptical. On social media, the prevailing question is, "Does anyone believe them?" Even Miguel Díaz-Canel admitted before the Assembly that "some obstacles do not come from outside or the embargo."
Economist Elías Amor bluntly summarizes: "The issue is that needs can be met with foreign currency, and people are willing to pay whatever it takes for it."
He adds, "No foreign currency will enter Cuba in the coming months." With the dollar nearing 700 CUP, the announced reforms must demonstrate tangible outcomes before the informal market shifts direction.
Frequently Asked Questions About Cuba's Currency Market
What are the current informal exchange rates for the dollar and euro in Cuba?
As of today, the dollar is trading at 690 CUP, while the euro has reached 790 CUP in the informal market.
How has the informal market reacted to the recent economic measures announced by the Cuban government?
The informal market has responded with further increases in currency exchange rates, indicating skepticism and a lack of confidence in the announced reforms.
What are some of the major reforms included in the recent economic package?
The reforms include the introduction of private banking, private exchange houses, removal of employment caps for small businesses, and the possibility of state enterprises becoming joint-stock companies.