This Thursday, the dollar soared to 690 Cuban pesos (CUP) in Cuba's informal market, according to real-time data from elTOQUE. The day began with the currency at 685 CUP, signaling a rapid ascent.
The 700 pesos threshold is now within reach. If the current trend continues, it is likely to surpass this milestone by the weekend.
June's escalation is unprecedented in recent history. The month began with the dollar at 585 CUP, and in just 18 days, it has surged by over 100 pesos, marking a depreciation of more than 17%.
Unexpected Economic Shifts
The Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi) at elTOQUE initially forecast a cap of 650 CUP for June. This ceiling was shattered on the 12th, a full 18 days ahead of schedule.
Meanwhile, the euro also saw an increase, closing at 785 CUP, a jump of 10 pesos from the day's start.
Currency Disparities Widen
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) remains stable at 500 CUP for the second consecutive day. However, elTOQUE flags it with a warning icon, indicating unconfirmed or out-of-market data.
The gap with the official rate set by the Central Bank of Cuba, which pegs the dollar at 555 CUP, continues to widen. Those buying currency in the informal market pay 135 pesos more than the state rate, raising the cost of imported goods and exacerbating the inequality between those with access to foreign currency and those reliant solely on the peso.
Inflation Fears Amid Policy Changes
This rapid climb coincides with an announcement that may further inflame inflation rather than calm the markets. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz unveiled an increase in the minimum wage to 3,210 pesos at the Third Extraordinary Session of the National Assembly of People's Power. This represents a 53% hike from the 2,100 pesos in place since January 2021.
The issue lies in the fact that this new minimum wage amounts to less than five dollars at the informal exchange rate, while studies indicate that meeting basic needs requires around 96,000 pesos monthly. This is starkly contrasted with the average state salary of just 6,930 CUP.
Economists caution that a wage increase without productive backing, funded by monetary issuance, could accelerate inflation and further pressure the informal exchange rate.
Economic Projections and Challenges
Economist Elías Amor starkly put it: "Currency exchangers are saying no, not at 600, at 700, and then 800 the following week."
Amor also painted a bleak immediate future: "No foreign currency will enter Cuba in the coming months," warning that "we might see rates nearing 1,000 CUP per dollar."
The underlying structural issues illustrate the extent of the decline. In 2020, the dollar traded at approximately 42 CUP in the informal market; now, it stands at 690 CUP, reflecting a loss of over 95% in the value of the Cuban peso over six years. The average year-on-year depreciation between January and April 2026 was 45%, more than double that of 2025.
Tourism Collapse and Economic Adversity
Adding to the woes is the collapse of tourism, the country's main source of foreign currency. From January to May 2026, only 359,491 international visitors arrived, a 58.4% decrease from the same period in 2025, with hotel occupancy at just 12.9% in the first quarter.
Vice President Salvador Valdés Mesa himself acknowledged in May that "6,000 CUP is not enough to live on" given the high prices, a statement that underscores the depth of the crisis that the regime has failed to manage effectively over six decades of misguided economic policies.
The OMFi warned that "further economic isolation could result in more restrictions on currency inflow, reduced availability of imported goods, and additional inflationary pressures," a scenario that Thursday's data confirms with precision.
Understanding Cuba's Economic Challenges
Why is the dollar rising so quickly in Cuba's informal market?
The dollar is rising rapidly due to a combination of factors, including a lack of foreign currency inflow, economic mismanagement by the regime, and increasing inflationary pressures. These factors contribute to the depreciation of the Cuban peso.
What impact does the informal exchange rate have on the Cuban economy?
The informal exchange rate affects the cost of imported goods, widening the gap between those with access to foreign currency and those who don't. This disparity exacerbates social inequality and makes essential goods more expensive for the average Cuban.
How does the collapse of tourism affect Cuba's economy?
Tourism is a crucial source of foreign currency for Cuba. The dramatic decline in tourist numbers reduces the inflow of foreign currency, further straining the economy and limiting the government's ability to import goods and stabilize the peso.