Economist Elías Amor raised eyebrows on Thursday as he dissected one of the most controversial proposals from the Extraordinary Plenary of the Central Committee of the PCC held on Wednesday: the idea of swapping foreign debt for Cuban assets, a strategy proposed by Miguel Díaz-Canel as part of his agenda comprising 23 key areas and 176 economic transformation suggestions.
Díaz-Canel explicitly suggested that Cuba should "conduct a process of debt-for-assets swap," emphasizing that the aim would be to "exchange national assets for debts without permanently relinquishing ownership."
This statement, made before the Central Committee of the Communist Party, was enough to alarm Amor, who reacted sharply during his interview with CiberCuba.
"I was taken aback when Díaz-Canel said 'we should conduct a process of debt-for-assets swap.' Are they planning to sell the keys?" exclaimed the economist, before questioning: "What assets does the communist regime have that are valuable enough to be traded for debt?"
Potential Implications of Asset Swap
Amor illustrated how this scheme might work in practice. "He's looking for a scheme where, for example, I owe you, Switzerland, $2 billion, and in exchange, I’ll give you two keys in the Canarreos for your tourism business. You don’t have to pay me anything, you keep them for 50 or 100 years, but it settles our debt," he explained.
The economist warned that the line between a temporary concession and a real disposition of assets might be thinner than it appears, drawing a direct comparison to the Greek sovereign debt crisis. "It’s one thing to lease those keys to Switzerland for 50 years, and another to sell them, as we've seen happen in Europe. In Greece, during the 2008 crisis, Greeks had to sell territory to manage debts."
Comparisons with Greece's Debt Crisis
During that crisis, Athens privatized strategic assets—ports, lands, services—as part of the conditions for bailouts from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The port of Piraeus was handed over to the Chinese company COSCO in a process that many Greeks viewed as a surrender of economic sovereignty.
The context of Cuban debt makes the proposal even more precarious. Cuba is scheduled to renegotiate its debt terms with the Paris Club in January 2025, after failing to meet payment agreements from 2019-2020, following an $8.5 billion debt relief on a total $11 billion debt in 2015. Independent analysts estimate that Cuba's total debt could exceed 100% of its GDP, far above official figures.
Amor emphasized that how these measures are implemented will be crucial. "We must closely watch how these measures are executed, ensuring they do not infringe upon the national sovereignty of Cubans."
Criticism of the Proposed Economic Plan
The economist described the overall plan as "empty rhetoric" and a "hollow proclamation," pointing out technical and political flaws that will hinder achieving the outlined goals. Alongside the interview, he published an 11-page written analysis on his blog about the proposals from the Plenary.
While the regime touts these reforms as a historic transformation, the Cuban peso continues to plummet, and Cubans remain skeptical of each new promise of change.
Understanding Cuba's Debt Swap Proposal
What is the debt-for-assets swap proposed by Díaz-Canel?
Díaz-Canel proposed a strategy where Cuban national assets could be exchanged for foreign debt commitments, aiming to settle debts without permanently transferring ownership of the assets.
Why did Elías Amor express concern about this proposal?
Elías Amor expressed alarm because he perceives the proposal as potentially jeopardizing national sovereignty, similar to how Greece had to sell assets during its debt crisis.
How does the Cuban debt context add complexity to the proposal?
Cuba's debt situation is complex, with renegotiations due and a history of missed payments. Analysts suggest that the debt could exceed 100% of GDP, making the proposed swap a delicate issue.