Cuban-American businessman Carlos Saladrigas, who chairs the Cuba Study Group, emphasized on Monday that the Cuban regime has run out of maneuvering room, and the only viable path forward is through a formal, bilateral agreement with the United States.
“Cuba has exhausted its options, and the possibilities that existed during the Obama era are no longer applicable today,” he stated in an interview with Tania Costa on CiberCuba.
Saladrigas was adamant that any verbal understanding is essentially meaningless given the regime's history. “There must be a written commitment, an agreement, a signed pact between the United States and Cuba. A signed document where the U.S. commits to certain actions, and Cuba commits to others,” he asserted, recalling the failed expectations from the normalization process initiated under the Obama Administration between 2014-2016 when Havana did not meet the anticipated openness.
According to Saladrigas, the central issue is the credibility gap between the two parties. “If the regime were to breach a signed agreement, Washington would not be left defenseless: ‘We always have the hammer in hand because the U.S. military strength is formidable.’”
Envisioning a Practical Agreement Process
Saladrigas outlined the process he believes should guide any potential agreement with a future Trump Administration. Initially, a temporary lifting of the embargo for 12 to 24 months would be necessary, providing time for a National Unification Commission—with diaspora representation—to outline the specifics of an orderly transition.
“That would be the logical process,” he mentioned, highlighting that Congress has the authority to approve it if the president requests it, with bipartisan support from both Democrats and Republicans.
Humanitarian Aid and Structural Challenges
Simultaneously, Saladrigas emphasized that the U.S. should send substantial humanitarian aid to the island, though he warned of structural challenges. “The issue with humanitarian aid in Cuba is that no one has the capability to distribute it,” he noted. He revealed close collaboration with the Catholic Church on a specific project to address this problem.
“We have a project to build an Amazon-like distribution center in Havana for the Catholic Church in Cuba.” Nevertheless, he acknowledged that even this initiative, expected to be ready within six to eight months, “will not suffice to address a true humanitarian crisis.”
Recent Economic Reforms: A Step, But Not Enough
Saladrigas' analysis comes just days after Díaz-Canel announced a series of economic reforms on June 12, which include greater autonomy for state-owned enterprises, opening up to diaspora investment, and reducing the bureaucratic apparatus from 27 to 20 ministries. Saladrigas acknowledged the gesture but stressed that the measures are inadequate, lack a solid legal foundation, and fail to address the liberation of civil society.
The businessman also cautioned that achieving the agreement Trump desires requires actions, not words. “To achieve that Good Deal President Trump wants, we need to see actions rather than announcements, concrete actions from the Cuban side,” he stated. He concluded with a rhetorical question: “What options does the Cuban government have if not to address the problem they have on their hands? We all hope this issue can be resolved in a way that is least harmful to sovereignty.”
On June 11, the White House had already sent a direct message to the Cuban regime, urging negotiation “before it’s too late.” This was within the context of a maximum pressure policy that includes sanctions on Venezuelan fuel supplies and discreet talks between officials from both governments, the terms of which have not been made public.
Understanding the U.S.-Cuba Relations
Why does Carlos Saladrigas believe a written agreement is necessary for U.S.-Cuba relations?
Saladrigas believes a written agreement is necessary because verbal understandings lack real value due to the Cuban regime's historic unreliability. A formal document would ensure mutual commitments from both the United States and Cuba.
What are the structural challenges in providing humanitarian aid to Cuba?
The main structural challenge is the lack of capacity to distribute humanitarian aid within Cuba. Saladrigas highlights the need for a robust distribution system to effectively deliver aid to those in need.
What recent economic reforms did Díaz-Canel announce?
Díaz-Canel announced reforms that include greater autonomy for state-owned enterprises, opening up to diaspora investment, and reducing the number of ministries from 27 to 20.