Dollar Heads Toward 700 Pesos Mark: Cuban Market Braces for Further Increase

This Monday, the U.S. dollar reached 670 Cuban pesos (CUP) in Cuba's informal market, and indications suggest that this upward trend is far from over. Analysis tools from elTOQUE Markets reveal that traders are already expecting another increase, potentially pushing the U.S. currency to 700 CUP in the near future.

The histogram released by the platform on Monday—part of their newly launched financial intelligence service since June 11—places the market median at 670 CUP, with the most significant concentration of offers ranging between 670 and 675 pesos. However, the distribution stretches to figures near 710 CUP, indicating expectations of further rises.

“Everything suggests that the dollar and other currencies will continue to rise against the Cuban peso in the short term,” stated elTOQUE when sharing their analysis.

Imbalance of Supply and Demand

The reason behind this trend is straightforward: there are more Cubans looking to purchase dollars than there are those willing to sell them.

“For the CUP to recover, there would need to be far more people selling dollars than buying them. This is not happening,” clarified the platform.

Throughout the week from June 7 to June 14, the market maintained a balance between buyers and sellers, with no surplus of supply to halt the depreciation of the national currency. The buying and selling curves remained stable, a sign that, according to the analysis, supports the continuation of the upward trend.

Unexpected Pace of Decline

The speed at which the peso has deteriorated has taken even analysts by surprise. At the beginning of June, the Currency and Finance Observatory of elTOQUE predicted the dollar might close the month around 650 CUP. However, this barrier was surpassed on June 12, nearly three weeks before the month's end.

In just fifteen days, the dollar climbed from 585 to 670 pesos, an increase of 85 CUP, equating to more than 14%. The rise has been nearly constant: starting June at 585 CUP, reaching 600 by the 3rd, hitting 625 by the 8th, touching 650 by the 12th, climbing to 660 on Sunday, and setting a new record of 670 CUP this Monday.

Broader Currency Pressure

The pressure isn't limited to the dollar. The euro also reached a historic high of 770 CUP, while the freely convertible currency (MLC) jumped 70 pesos in a single day, surpassing the 500 CUP barrier for the first time by being valued at 510.

Underlying these currency fluctuations are structural issues that continue to worsen. A shortage of foreign currency, a collapse in tourism, an energy crisis, and an expanding money supply without productive backing are eroding confidence in the Cuban peso.

Between January and April of this year, Cuba received only 328,608 international visitors, a 55.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Concurrently, the country is grappling with a severe electricity crisis, with deficits exceeding 2,100 megawatts reported in May.

The magnitude of the peso's decline is evident when examining its performance over recent years. Since 2020, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value against the dollar in the informal market, dropping from around 42 CUP per dollar to the current 670.

Cuban economist Elías Amor recently cautioned that if current economic imbalances persist, the U.S. dollar could even approach 1,000 pesos.

"Currency traders say no, not at 600, at 700, and the following week at 800, and so on, because foreign currency is not going to enter Cuba in the coming months," warned the expert.