The recent peace agreement between the United States and Iran, announced by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Sunday, led to an immediate dip in oil prices on Monday. However, experts caution that consumers might have to wait several months before experiencing any significant relief at the gas pump.
According to data from The Associated Press reported by Telemundo Dallas, the Brent crude fell by 4.6% on Monday, dropping by $3.45 to $83.89 a barrel. Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark crude (WTI) decreased by $4.03, settling at $80.85. Despite this positive reaction, these prices remain substantially higher than the approximately $70 per barrel seen before the conflict began.
The Impact of the Conflict on Oil Prices
The conflict, which started on February 28, 2026, with "Operation Epic Fury," drove oil prices beyond $125 per barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world's oil passes—crippled maritime traffic by 97%, pushing the average gas price in the U.S. to $4.48 per gallon in May, a 50% increase from pre-war levels. California even saw prices soar to $6.10 per gallon.
Former President Trump confirmed the agreement on Truth Social with a triumphant message: "Let the oil flow!" This authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
Why Immediate Price Drops Aren't Expected
Daniel Evans, Global Head of Fuel and Refining Research at S&P Global Energy, explained that oil tankers have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over three months, unable to safely navigate the shipping lanes.
"It will take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurances to be in place... particularly to deploy personnel on the ground and restart some of these assets," Evans stated.
The expert further noted, "To bring in a ship, there must be a sufficiently wide security window for it to enter, load, and exit."
Who Will Recover Faster and Who Will Lag Behind?
Alan Gelder, Senior Vice President at Wood Mackenzie, indicated that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—which have alternative pipelines to the strait—might be among the fastest to resume production.
However, he warned that Iraq would face more significant challenges: "Places like Iraq could experience more difficulties because they have shut down much more production, and their fields are more complex... it might take them around a year to recover."
Daniel Sternoff from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University added another cautionary note: countries that halted production may not want to restart until they are confident the strait will remain stable and the ceasefire will last beyond 30 to 60 days. "We don't know what 'open' means or how quickly trapped material will exit," he mentioned.
The Consumer's Roadmap
Uncertainty persists because, as of Sunday evening, Tehran had not officially confirmed the agreement. The formal signing ceremony is expected on Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.
According to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, recovery will be gradual: one-third of the price surge might reverse within one to three months, another third between three to six months, and a full return to pre-crisis prices may not occur until early or mid-2027.
Frequently Asked Questions about Gas Prices and the U.S.-Iran Agreement
How soon can consumers expect gas prices to decrease?
Experts predict that a noticeable decrease in gas prices may take several months. Initial reductions could be seen within one to three months, but full recovery to pre-crisis levels may not occur until 2027.
What factors are delaying the reduction in gas prices?
The delay is largely due to logistical challenges, including stranded tankers, the need for secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the time required to restart production facilities safely.