This past Sunday, the U.S. dollar reached an unprecedented value of 670 Cuban pesos (CUP) in Cuba's informal currency exchange market, according to real-time monitoring by elTOQUE. This marks an increase of 10 CUP in mere hours from the morning's 660 CUP.
Similarly, the euro experienced a rise of 10 CUP, reaching 770 CUP, marking another all-time high. Meanwhile, the MLC hit 450 CUP, the Canadian dollar settled at 431.35 CUP, and the Mexican peso stood at 37.21 CUP.
The Rapid Climb of June
The pace of the dollar's increase in June has been relentless: it began the month at 585 CUP, exceeded the 600 CUP threshold on the third day, and has continued to escalate — reaching 610 on the fifth, 625 on the eighth, 635 on the tenth, 640 on the eleventh, 650 on the twelfth, 655 on the thirteenth, 660 on Sunday, and finally 670 on Monday.
In just half a month, the dollar has risen by 85 CUP, translating to a more than 14% depreciation of the Cuban peso against the U.S. currency.
Euro's Accelerated Ascent
The euro's trajectory has been even more pronounced relative to the dollar: from 690 CUP on the fifth to 770 CUP this Monday, an increase of 80 CUP in just ten days. The gap between the euro and the dollar remains at 100 CUP, indicating that the demand for euros is growing at a faster pace than that for dollars in the informal market.
This rapid depreciation far exceeds analysts' forecasts: elTOQUE's Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi) had projected a maximum scenario of 650 CUP by the end of June, a figure surpassed by June 12, with more than two weeks still remaining.
Underlying Structural Issues
The freefall of the Cuban peso can be attributed to entrenched structural issues that reinforce each other. Tourism, the island's primary source of foreign exchange, plummeted by 55.8% year-on-year from January to April 2026, with only 328,608 visitors, as reported by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI).
Compounding this is a severe energy crisis with extended blackouts and fuel shortages that halt production, the issuance of unsupported 2,000 and 5,000 peso notes, and an annual inflation rate of 14.73%.
The discrepancy between the official rate set by the Central Bank of Cuba — pegged at 533 CUP per dollar — and the informal rate of 670 CUP has widened to over 137 CUP, highlighting the deep distortion in the currency market and the widespread lack of confidence in the peso.
With June only halfway through and no indication that the regime possesses effective tools to stem the decline, analysts suggest the dollar could reach 700 CUP before the month's end.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Crisis
What caused the U.S. dollar to reach a new high in Cuba?
The rise to a new high of 670 CUP is due to structural issues such as a significant drop in tourism, an energy crisis, and high inflation, leading to a lack of confidence in the Cuban peso.
How much has the Cuban peso depreciated against the U.S. dollar in June?
In June alone, the Cuban peso has depreciated by over 14% against the U.S. dollar, with an increase of 85 CUP in just 15 days.
What are the projections for the U.S. dollar in Cuba by the end of June?
Analysts predict that the U.S. dollar may reach 700 CUP by the end of June, given the current trajectory and lack of effective measures to halt the peso's decline.