The National Electric System (SEN) in Cuba is set to experience an estimated power shortfall of 1,720 MW during peak evening hours this Friday, according to the report from the Electric Union (UNE).
This figure marks a slight improvement from Thursday's deficit, which peaked at 2,027 MW at 8:00 p.m., yet the system remains critically unstable.
By 6:00 a.m. on Friday, the SEN's available capacity was just 1,030 MW, while the demand reached 2,590 MW, leaving a gap of 1,560 MW from the start of the day. At midday, the shortfall was projected to be 1,550 MW.
Evening Peak Projections
For the evening peak, UNE anticipates an availability of 1,310 MW against a peak demand of 3,000 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,690 MW. "Should the expected conditions persist, a shortfall of 1,720 MW is projected for this period," warns the official report.
Uncertain Improvements and Persistent Challenges
The slight improvement hinges on two uncertain additions: the activation of a unit at the Antonio Guiteras Thermal Power Plant (CTE) with 200 MW—currently undergoing startup—and a second unit at the Santa Cruz CTE with 80 MW. Both are contingent upon technical conditions that the regime itself cannot assure.
The structural issues causing the collapse remain largely unchanged.
Five units are currently out of service due to failures at the Antonio Guiteras, Máximo Gómez, Ernesto Guevara de la Serna, and Lidio Ramón Pérez plants. Additionally, four blocks are under maintenance at the Mariel, Renté, and Nuevitas plants.
Fuel Shortages and Widespread Outages
The most devastating factor continues to be the fuel shortage. A total of 106 distributed generation plants are idle due to a lack of hydrocarbons, which equates to 890 MW offline. The total unavailable megawatts due to fuel scarcity amount to 1,203 MW. The Regla Barge, Melones Barge, Mariel Fuel Plant, and Moa Fuel Plant also remain out of service.
The capital isn't immune to the crisis. The Electric Company reported that on Thursday, the province experienced service interruptions throughout the day, with a peak shortfall of 395 MW at 8:00 p.m.
"Emergency shutdowns of circuits totaling 100 MW were necessary. It was not possible to restore service," the company stated in its official note.
The 54 photovoltaic solar parks contributed 3,288 MWh on Thursday, with a maximum power output of 440 MW at noon.
Public Unrest and Record Deficits
This crisis has sparked a wave of protests and pot-banging demonstrations in Havana and Santiago de Cuba since June 3. Residents of Santos Suárez reported enduring 31 consecutive hours without electricity, while those in Luyanó experienced over 30 hours without power or water.
The worst deficit of the year occurred on May 14, reaching 2,174 MW.
Understanding Cuba's Power Crisis
What is causing Cuba's power deficit?
Cuba's power deficit is primarily due to structural issues within the electric system, including equipment failures, lack of maintenance, and severe shortages of fuel.
How has the public responded to the power outages?
The public response has involved protests and demonstrations, including pot-banging, particularly in cities like Havana and Santiago de Cuba, as residents express frustration over prolonged power outages.
What efforts are being made to improve the situation?
Efforts to improve the situation include attempts to bring additional power units online, although these are uncertain due to technical and resource limitations.