Researcher Jorge Piñón from the University of Texas Energy Institute dismissed any immediate hopes for an energy reprieve in Cuba this Thursday. He issued a stark warning: the electric crisis is set to intensify even if political changes occur. "The situation will worsen, and it will be even more severe during a transition," he stated in an interview with Tania Costa.
Piñón pointed to two concurrent and independent issues that make a swift solution unattainable: the scarcity of fuel for the gensets and the severe technical degradation of the thermoelectric plants.
Current State of Cuba's Power System
Regarding the current state of the electrical system, Piñón was unequivocal: "This morning, I believe there were 10 or 11 units out of service. That's nearly 60% of the total 19 units across the eight thermoelectric plants."
The Antonio Guiteras power plant, the largest in the country, exemplifies this technical collapse. "Guiteras was offline for three or four days, came back yesterday, and I understand it has once again gone offline today," Piñón noted.
Fuel Shortages and Distributed Generation
On Thursday night, the power deficit exceeded 2,000 MW, with 106 distributed generation plants out of service due to a lack of fuel.
When asked if a political transition could solve the fuel issue within a month, Piñón answered with a firm no. "It can't be resolved if the model is the same one we took in Venezuela," he warned.
Lessons from Venezuela
The expert used Venezuela's situation as a direct cautionary tale. Since Nicolás Maduro left power on January 3, 2026, Venezuela, in his view, has seen no substantial change.
"Political prisoners haven't been released. There's been no establishment of a free press. No announcement of free elections. Venezuela remains the same as when Maduro was removed from power."
Applying this to Cuba, Piñón fears a scenario where an agreement might result in the removal of "one or two leaders," but the rest of the bureaucracy and the single party remain in control. "In that case, I don't know how the fuel issue will be resolved," he remarked.
Structural Differences and Economic Challenges
The structural differences between the two countries make this scenario even more dire. Washington could offer Venezuela a roadmap to reactivate its energy sector because it possesses 300 billion barrels of oil reserves. Cuba lacks such leverage: "What does Cuba have? Cuba has nothing. Here, Cuba only has a bit of nickel," Piñón emphasized.
This analysis coincides with the U.S. State Department sanctioning CUPET under Executive Order 14404, blocking the Cuban state oil company's assets and interests under U.S. jurisdiction. Piñón explained in the same interview that while isotanks can still arrive from the United States, large volumes via tankers are blocked because the country's maritime terminals are controlled by CUPET.
Additionally, Miami-Dade revoked the business license of Vanguard Energy, a Coral Gables-based company that planned to export 200,000 barrels of fuel monthly to Cuba.
"We see very dark clouds on the horizon because even if U.S.-Cuba relations improve, rebuilding Cuba's oil value chain and electricity infrastructure will take time," Piñón concluded.
Understanding Cuba's Energy Crisis
What are the main factors contributing to Cuba's energy crisis?
The crisis is primarily due to a lack of fuel for power generators and severe technical issues with thermoelectric plants.
Could a political change in Cuba quickly solve the energy issues?
No, a political transition alone is unlikely to resolve the energy problems swiftly, especially if the current model persists.
How does Cuba's situation compare to Venezuela's under similar political changes?
Cuba lacks the large oil reserves that Venezuela has, making it more challenging to offer a roadmap to economic recovery.