Cuban oncologist and activist Oscar Casanellas has expressed deep concerns that a possible transition in Cuba could follow a path similar to that of Venezuela, Belarus, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, where political shifts allowed ruling elites to remain in power while the general population continued to suffer.
Currently in migration limbo while seeking asylum, Casanellas shared his anxieties on Tania Costa's show on CiberCuba. His comments came shortly after the federal indictment of Raúl Castro on May 20 and the subsequent arrest of the sister of GAESA's head two days later.
"I'm not pleased with what's happening in Venezuela. It's progressing too slowly, without clarity, transparency, or a timeline, leading to widespread disillusionment among the Venezuelan opposition," Casanellas stated.
He is particularly worried that Cuba might follow a similar trajectory. "I fear that Cuba will experience what happened in Belarus, Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, and many other countries where the transition was fraudulent, failed, or excruciatingly slow, allowing the power elites to endure," he explained.
Implementing Lustration as a Preventive Measure
To prevent such an outcome, Casanellas strongly advocates for lustration as a crucial mechanism from the very start of any political change, which he refers to as the "zero day."
He describes lustration as "employing all possible means to reveal identities and, in many cases, demand public repentance from those responsible for crimes against humanity or political repression, who have destroyed lives and families."
Practically, he insists, "Anyone who has held a political position should not be allowed to transition to the next government, avoiding any recycling of power."
Casanellas emphasizes that disqualification should not only target the political police but also extend to military counterintelligence within the MININT and other repressive structures. Those with specific crimes should also face trial.
Learning from Historical Transitions
He cites the Spanish transition as a cautionary tale, describing it as "falsely closed" because Franco-era judges retained their positions, leading to unresolved wounds even after over 30 years of democracy. He notes, however, that "Franco's regime wasn't as totalitarian as Cuba's...it didn't have the fine social control seen in places like North Korea or Cuba."
Current Challenges on the Island
Within Cuba, Casanellas identifies two major barriers to citizen mobilization: widespread fear and the struggle for survival. "The conditions are so hostile that it's challenging for activists or ordinary citizens to unite and protest," he explained, sharing a personal anecdote: "There were times when I was invited to protest...and I'd say: I can't, I need to find food for my child today or tomorrow."
This is compounded by the regime's systematic internet shutdowns. "I believe that internet access is essential for significant liberation or protests to occur," he asserted, citing the events of July 11, 2021, as an example of what connectivity can achieve.
Envisioning a New Political Landscape
Regarding the political climate among the opposition, Casanellas appreciates the rise of new parties, though he opts not to formally join any. "I support all who stand against the dictatorship. It's a necessary step," he declared.
As a scientist, he advocates for a decentralized political structure for Cuba's future, ensuring "no node or individual accumulates excessive power or influence," with mandatory term limits for executive roles such as president or prime minister.
"There's no historical example of a people overthrowing a totalitarian dictatorship on their own," Casanellas warned, emphasizing that in Eastern Europe, changes were either initiated from above or within non-totalitarian regimes, underscoring the urgency of meticulously planning Cuba’s transition.
Understanding Cuba's Political Transition Challenges
What is the main concern of Oscar Casanellas regarding Cuba's transition?
Oscar Casanellas is mainly concerned that a transition in Cuba might be ineffective or reversible, similar to experiences in Venezuela, Belarus, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, where political changes allowed existing power structures to persist.
What does Casanellas advocate for to prevent a failed transition?
Casanellas advocates for lustration, a process of revealing identities and demanding accountability from those responsible for crimes against humanity and political repression, to ensure they do not transition into the new government.
How does Casanellas view the role of the internet in Cuba's potential political change?
Casanellas believes that internet access is critical for organizing large-scale protests and achieving liberation, as demonstrated during the events of July 11, 2021, when connectivity allowed for significant mobilization.