Iliana Lavastida, the executive director of Diario Las Américas, warned during a Tuesday interview with Tania Costa on CiberCuba that while the recovery of Cuba is feasible after the end of the Castro regime, it will be a slow and intricate process.
"Cuba's recovery is indeed possible. However, it will require significant effort," Lavastida stated. With 22 years in exile, she leads one of the United States' most influential Spanish-language newspapers.
Lavastida believes that as the transition begins, Cubans will face a nation that is materially devastated. "Cuba is unfortunately in ruins. There is no infrastructure in place," she noted.
The Extent of Cuba's Collapse
According to Lavastida, the collapse spans all essential sectors. The water systems are "shattered," leaving people without potable water for days; outdated thermoelectric plants break down due to lack of maintenance, and the housing sector is "a disaster," with architecturally significant buildings left to decay, except for parts of Old Havana preserved during Eusebio Leal's time.
Rebuilding Cuban Society
Lavastida emphasized that the most significant challenge won't be the physical reconstruction but rather rebuilding Cuban society. "Reconstructing the social fabric will require more effort. While it's not unsolvable, it will demand time and a committed effort from those willing to contribute to this intangible yet crucial aspect, as important as economic rebuilding for a prosperous future."
The director pointed out that decades of oppression and poverty have instilled certain behaviors in Cubans, particularly those born after the Berlin Wall fell, which are a direct result of the dictatorship.
"These behaviors, while not excusable, must be understood in the context where people have acquired bad habits and attitudes due to the regime's oppressive experiments on the Cuban people," she explained.
She provided a clear example: "Raising a child in Cuba, if you wake up with nothing to feed them, requires an exceptionally strong spirit to instill patriotism amidst such poverty and hunger."
Demographic Crisis and Opportunities Abroad
Lavastida also highlighted Cuba's demographic crisis, referencing a study by U.S.-based Cuban Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos. The island's resident population has shrunk from 11 million to 8 million over the last four years due to mass exodus. "This is a demographic tragedy for the country," she remarked.
She attributed this decline to the mass exodus and young women's reluctance to have children under current conditions.
In contrast, Lavastida noted the success of Cubans abroad, who have thrived globally and expressed willingness to return to aid in Cuba's economic and structural recovery.
Political Dynamics and Future Prospects
Regarding the political scene, Lavastida addressed the question of changes with Raúl Castro's removal from power, indicating that control doesn't solely lie with him. A grandchild, a son, and a great-nephew, Pérez Oliva Fraga, who has recently gained prominence, maintain influence. Additionally, loyalists without the Castro surname continue to serve the family's interests.
Consequently, Lavastida suggested that while Raúl Castro's prosecution "could serve as a warning," it doesn't assure a systemic change.
The discourse on Cuba's transition and reconstruction is gaining momentum in 2026, with plans from Washington and proposals from civil society. However, Lavastida's warning offers a more cautious perspective: "We've been denied this freedom uniquely in Cuba. The first step to prevent it was the suppression of all liberties."
Understanding Cuba's Reconstruction Challenges
Why is the recovery of Cuba expected to be slow and complex?
The recovery is expected to be slow and complex due to the extensive devastation of infrastructure and the need for societal rebuilding after decades of oppressive regimes.
What are the main challenges in reconstructing Cuban society?
The main challenges include rebuilding the social fabric affected by years of oppression and poverty, and addressing the bad habits and behaviors instilled in the population under the dictatorship.
How has the Cuban population changed demographically?
Cuba's population has decreased from 11 million to 8 million due to mass exodus and the reluctance of young women to have children under current conditions, creating a demographic crisis.