A Russian channel known as Rybar, one of the most prominent military analysis platforms within the pro-Kremlin Telegram community, recently published an article titled "What If Geran Drones Launched from Cuba?" This provocative piece has sparked concern and discussion.
The article, shared on social media in late January, included a map highlighting potential U.S. targets that could be within the reach of Iranian Shahed-136 drones, hypothetically deployed from the island of Cuba. The map suggests a strategic range that could include significant sites in the United States.
The publication argues that "the main question is not whether the United States will strike Cuba, but when and how it will do so," proposing scenarios where Cuba might retaliate using "Geran" attack drones, Russia's designation for the Iranian Shahed drones utilized in Ukraine.
According to the map shared by Rybar, potential targets from Cuba could encompass Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump's residence in Florida; the White House; U.S. military bases; SpaceX facilities; technology data centers; Gulf of Mexico refineries; and the headquarters of the Southern Command.
This article gained traction again on social media through Samuel Bendett, a CSIS analyst, shortly after Axios reported that the Cuban regime had acquired over 300 military drones from Russia and Iran since 2023, based on classified intelligence cited by U.S. officials.
The report further alleged that Cuban officials had discussed hypothetical scenarios involving attacks on the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, U.S. vessels, and even Key West, raising alarms among defense analysts.
Despite Washington's clarification that Cuba is not considered an imminent military threat, the growing military cooperation between Havana, Moscow, and Tehran has intensified concerns. Bendett, a renowned U.S. analyst on military drones and Russian technology, described Rybar as "one of the most active pro-Kremlin channels" and noted its previous promotion of similar scenarios concerning Venezuela.
In earlier publications, Rybar suggested supplying Geran drones to the Venezuelan regime as a deterrence strategy against the U.S. and even analyzed the potential use of Venezuelan FPV drones in hypothetical military operations.
This pattern indicates that Russian nationalist and military sectors have been promoting narratives about asymmetric warfare in Latin America, leveraging cost-effective Iranian or Russian-made drones for months. Although there is no public evidence that Cuba currently operates Shahed or Geran drones, the rising interest from Russian military media in confrontation scenarios from the Caribbean aligns with recent U.S. intelligence warnings and the deteriorating relations between Washington and Havana.
Concerns Over Drone Deployment from Cuba
What are the potential targets for drones launched from Cuba?
Potential targets include Mar-a-Lago, the White House, U.S. military bases, SpaceX facilities, technology data centers, Gulf of Mexico refineries, and the headquarters of the Southern Command.
Has Cuba acquired drones from Russia and Iran?
According to classified intelligence cited by U.S. officials, Cuba has acquired over 300 military drones from Russia and Iran since 2023.
Is Cuba considered an immediate military threat by the United States?
The United States has clarified that it does not consider Cuba an immediate military threat, despite the growing military cooperation between Cuba, Russia, and Iran.
What is the significance of Rybar in military analysis?
Rybar is recognized as one of the most active pro-Kremlin channels, known for promoting scenarios involving the use of drones and asymmetric warfare strategies in Latin America.