A member of Uruguay's National Party has raised concerns that the potential downfall of Cuba's dictatorship could have severe impacts across the region. Pablo Bragança, representing Maldonado, expressed during a routine session that "the fall of the Cuban regime will be a dreadful event."
According to the local outlet Cadena del Mar, Bragança made this statement last Monday at the Maldonado Departmental Board during a historical and geopolitical presentation titled "The Triumph of the Cuban Revolution and Its Consequences."
Bragança, aligned with the Union and Change sector within the National Party's Herrerism faction, warned that the regime's collapse might not mirror the failed Bay of Pigs invasion, but instead lead to external intervention, potentially making Cuba "another star on the imperialist flag."
He characterized the Cuban regime as "a completely arbitrary government" that has been sustained for nearly 70 years with Soviet support. He urged consideration of the repercussions its potential collapse could have for Latin America.
During his talk, Bragança reminisced about the revolutionary caravan's entry into Havana on January 8, 1959, describing it as "one of the most significant images in modern Latin America, likely altering the lives of thousands, if not millions, of Latin Americans."
His remarks fit into a broader political debate in Uruguay regarding the stance of Yamandú Orsi's Broad Front government toward Cuba. Previously, Bragança criticized Broad Front President Fernando Pereira for visiting Havana on March 20 to meet with Miguel Díaz-Canel, accusing him of "appeasing a regime that has caused hunger and political prisoners."
The politician also criticized the Uruguayan Senate for passing a motion on March 5, with 17 votes from the Broad Front, condemning U.S. fuel restrictions on Cuba, while the opposition walked out. Bragança argued that Orsi's foreign policy leaves Uruguay "in a very weak position, especially Maldonado, which relies on foreign investment," as reported by Portada.
The geopolitical backdrop is extremely tense. The Trump administration has imposed more than 240 sanctions on Cuba since January 2026, including measures against the military conglomerate GAESA. Reports from May 14 suggest that U.S. pressure has slashed Cuban energy imports by 80% to 90%.
The island is enduring its worst crisis in decades. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) forecasts a -6.5% contraction in Cuba's GDP for 2026, while the country faces seven total electrical system collapses over 18 months, with blackouts lasting up to 25 hours in over half the territory.
Amidst this situation, analysts and economists are discussing how much longer the Cuban regime can endure the rapid deterioration of its economy and energy infrastructure.
Key Questions on the Future of Cuba
What are the potential consequences of the Cuban regime collapsing?
The collapse could lead to regional instability and possibly external intervention, impacting the political and economic dynamics of Latin America.
How has the U.S. influenced the current situation in Cuba?
The U.S. has imposed over 240 sanctions against Cuba, significantly reducing its energy imports and contributing to the island's economic crisis.