In a new development this Sunday, the US dollar has risen once more in Cuba's black market, now trading at 548 Cuban pesos (CUP), according to data from elTOQUE. This marks a two-peso increase from the previous record high of 546 CUP on Saturday.
This upward trend brings the dollar perilously close to the psychological barrier of 550 CUP, widening the gap with the Cuban Central Bank's (BCC) official rate, which remains at 502 CUP per dollar.
Currency Exchange Rates in Cuba's Informal Market
As of Sunday, May 17, 2026, at 6:30 AM, the exchange rates are as follows: the US dollar (USD) stands at 548 CUP, the euro (EUR) at 625 CUP, and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) at 400 CUP. Notably, the euro remains unchanged at 625 CUP, while the MLC is still significantly below the 440 CUP it had reached on May 12.
Sunday's trading session is part of a sustained upward trend throughout May. The dollar started the month at 535 CUP on May 1 and has since climbed 13 CUP in just 17 days.
Similarly, the euro has risen by 20 CUP from its initial 605 CUP at the beginning of May, setting historic records in the informal market.
Historical Context and Projections
The dollar's rapid ascent began in February 2026, when it first breached the 500 CUP threshold on February 10. Since then, it has consistently reached new highs: 515 CUP on March 22, 526 CUP on April 21, 545 CUP on May 12, and 546 CUP on Saturday, before today's further increase.
The Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finances (OMFi) has warned that the average annual depreciation of the Cuban peso between January and April 2026 was 45%, more than double the 22% seen throughout 2025.
The OMFi projects a central scenario of 562 CUP per dollar for May, with a range of uncertainty from 523 to 590 CUP, suggesting that upward pressure may persist in the coming weeks.
Since 2020, the Cuban peso has plummeted by about 95% against the dollar in the informal market, dropping from 42 CUP to the current 548 CUP. This decline reflects a structural crisis fueled by chronic foreign currency shortages, a decrease in national production, and the regime's failure to implement substantial economic reforms.
Understanding the Cuban Peso Depreciation
What is causing the rapid depreciation of the Cuban peso?
The rapid depreciation of the Cuban peso is primarily due to a structural economic crisis, characterized by chronic foreign currency shortages, declining national production, and the government's resistance to implementing meaningful economic reforms.
How has the dollar performed in the Cuban informal market this year?
The US dollar has experienced a significant rise in the Cuban informal market this year, starting at 535 CUP in early May and reaching 548 CUP by mid-May, marking a 13 CUP increase in just 17 days.
What are the projections for the Cuban peso's exchange rate?
The Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finances projects a central exchange rate scenario of 562 CUP per dollar for May, with an uncertainty range from 523 to 590 CUP, indicating that the peso could continue to depreciate.