Cuban historian and activist Alina Bárbara López Hernández released an insightful analysis on Facebook this Thursday, arguing that the Cuban government squandered three critical junctions that could have facilitated a structured transition: the collapse of the Eastern European socialist bloc in the early 1990s, the constitutional consultation of 2018, and the massive social uprising on July 11, 2021.
The analysis, titled "On the Rise of Social Protests," comes during a period of intense tension, marked by power outages lasting up to 22 hours a day in some areas of Havana, amidst a surge of protests unseen since the events of July 11.
López emphasizes, "There are three things that cannot be taken back: a launched arrow, a spoken word, and a missed opportunity." She highlights that each of these pivotal moments was either overlooked or met with repression.
The Consequences of Ignored Opportunities
Focusing on the July 11 protests, the activist describes that day as "the largest popular protest since the post-1959 era." She asserts that rather than engaging in dialogue, the regime resorted to state terror, a decision she deems a "fatal error." This, López argues, led to a "mutual adaptation": state repression became normalized, as did citizen protest and civil disobedience.
López also critiques the constitutional underpinnings of the dictatorship. She writes, "Declaring a social system irreversible, as Article 4 of the Cuban Constitution does, is an anti-dialectical and pessimistic approach that aims to turn the social subject into a passive entity obedient to a higher will." She recalls that the fall of the socialist bloc proved no system is eternal.
Economic Missteps and Dependency
In her economic assessment, López outlines how decades of decision-making have left Cuba as a dependent nation lacking food sovereignty. The ruling elite "bet everything on building hotels and exporting medical services," while neglecting basic infrastructure. The regime's stability always relied on a "pillar country": first the USSR, then Venezuela.
The activist dismantles the official narrative regarding the embargo. She claims the regime "knowingly ignored the U.S. government's hostility, a constant in the political equation, even encouraging it when convenient," only to later blame that hostility while their own choices weakened the country.
"Cuba's political bureaucracy has created a Frankenstein: an oppressive state declared eternal amidst a systemic crisis in the digital age, where concealment is impossible," López states. She adds that this state invests increasingly in surveillance with dwindling resources, leading to its gradual self-destruction.
Current Crisis and Future Warnings
The government has not provided any honorable way out: no national dialogue or amnesty for the 775 political prisoners, of which 338 were convicted for participating in the July 2021 protests, as recorded by Justicia 11J.
The analysis is released amid an unprecedented energy crisis. According to Cubalex, 229 protests occurred across the island last March, averaging seven daily and spanning all provinces. This marks the highest monthly count since the mass protests of July 11, 2021.
Between May 12 and 14, pot-banging protests erupted in at least 12 Havana municipalities, with barricades and bonfires in Guanabacoa, prompting the U.S. Embassy to issue a security alert due to blackouts and demonstrations.
López, who was expelled from the Union of Writers and Artists of Cuba and detained multiple times — including during her monthly protest in Matanzas on April 18, 2026 — concludes with a direct warning to the leadership: "The day tanks roll out on the streets, the day they open fire on a popular protest, that violence will bring not only sanctions upon our country but will also serve as a civic wake-up call for many compatriots to realize that the only option left is to engage as political subjects. And they will. I have no doubt about that."
Understanding Cuba's Missed Opportunities
What were the three key moments missed by the Cuban regime?
The three pivotal moments were the collapse of the Eastern European socialist bloc in the early 1990s, the constitutional consultation in 2018, and the massive social protests on July 11, 2021.
How did the Cuban government respond to the July 11 protests?
Instead of opening a dialogue, the Cuban regime chose to implement state terror, which López describes as a fatal error that normalized both state repression and citizen disobedience.
What is Alina Bárbara López's critique of Cuba's economic decisions?
López criticizes decades of decisions that left Cuba dependent and lacking food sovereignty, focusing on tourism and medical services while neglecting essential infrastructure.