The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, recently stated that the downfall of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela was facilitated by "significant internal collusion" within the Venezuelan political system. He dismissed the likelihood of a similar scenario occurring in Cuba, where the regime is perceived to maintain stronger internal unity.
These comments were shared through the official X account of the Cuban mission to the UN, amid heightened pressure from the Trump administration on Havana. Since January 2025, over 240 sanctions have been imposed, alongside explicit threats of military intervention.
"In Venezuela, we witnessed a military operation against Maduro, but I believe there was substantial internal collusion within the political sphere," Guterres remarked.
The UN leader was firm in rejecting any parallels between the two nations: "I don't think a situation similar to Venezuela can happen in Cuba. The circumstances in Venezuela were entirely different. Drawing comparisons between Venezuela and Cuba is, in my view, unjust."
The suggestion of "collusion" within the Chavista regime is politically significant, indicating that elements within Venezuela might have facilitated or not resisted the "Absolute Resolution Operation" on January 3, 2026. During this operation, elite U.S. forces captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas.
The operation, involving 150 aircraft and about 200 soldiers with CIA support, resulted in the deaths of 32 Cuban military personnel defending the Venezuelan regime.
Cuba's Situation and International Response
Regarding Cuba, Guterres reiterated the UN's longstanding position: "Our stance on the sanctions against Cuba is unequivocal. Every year, the General Assembly passes a resolution considering these sanctions a violation of international law."
He also cautioned that "a military solution for Cuba is not viable" and urged for "constructive dialogue to ensure the Cuban people do not continue to suffer so dramatically."
These statements came shortly after Trump signed a new executive order declaring Cuba an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security, extending sanctions on the energy, defense, mining, and financial sectors.
The U.S. President also threatened to position the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier near the island: "We'll bring it close, stop it about 100 yards from the shore, and they'll say, 'Thank you very much, we surrender,'" Trump claimed in May.
On May 5, the Senate rejected a Democratic proposal to limit military operations against Cuba, while Trump had previously declared on March 27 that "Cuba is next" and on March 16 that he anticipated having "the honor of taking Cuba."
The humanitarian crisis in Cuba has significantly worsened. Sanctions have slashed the island's energy imports by 80 to 90%, with at least seven tankers intercepted. The collapse of Chavismo has also deprived the Cuban regime of its primary oil supplier, which used to provide between 25,000 and 35,000 barrels daily.
Back in February, UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric had already warned that Cuba's humanitarian situation "will worsen, if not collapse, if its oil needs are not met."
Understanding the Political Dynamics Between Cuba and Venezuela
What role did internal collusion play in Venezuela's political change?
Internal collusion within Venezuela's political system was crucial in facilitating the military operation that led to Nicolás Maduro's capture, suggesting that elements within the regime may have supported or not resisted the change.
Why does António Guterres believe a similar situation can't happen in Cuba?
Guterres argues that the political context in Cuba is different, with stronger internal cohesion in the regime, making a scenario akin to Venezuela's unlikely.
How have the U.S. sanctions impacted Cuba?
U.S. sanctions have severely affected Cuba's energy imports, reducing them by 80 to 90% and contributing to a worsening humanitarian crisis on the island.