This Saturday, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) experienced another increase in Cuba's informal market, moving up from 405 to 413 Cuban pesos (CUP).
The U.S. dollar remains stable at 540 CUP for the second consecutive day, while the euro holds its ground at a historic high of 620 CUP, a level it reached on Friday.
The past week has been marked by significant volatility for the MLC. Monday saw a sudden spike of 20 pesos, climbing from 400 to 420 CUP. By Wednesday, it had dropped back down by the same amount to 400 CUP, only to jump 30 pesos to 430 CUP on Thursday, finally settling at 413 CUP this Saturday.
Fluctuating Currency Values
According to elTOQUE, this movement indicates a trend of increasing upward pressure without any signs of slowing down. The rise in MLC aligns closely with the central scenario forecasted by the Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi) in its May bulletin, which anticipated the MLC reaching 413 CUP within the month, with a projected range between 390 and 445 CUP.
Meanwhile, the euro has been on a steady climb for three weeks. It broke the 600 CUP barrier on April 19 and has not dropped below that threshold since, amassing what elTOQUE describes as "an additional 20 pesos over that psychological barrier" in just three weeks.
Economic Challenges and Projections
The OMFi warns of an accelerated decline, noting, "The Cuban peso has lost more ground against the dollar in the first four months of 2026 than it did throughout 2025. The average year-on-year depreciation between January and April reached 45%, more than double the 22% recorded for the entirety of last year."
Factors contributing to the pressure on the peso include the collapse of tourism—Cuba welcomed only 35,561 visitors in March 2026, compared to 197,505 in the same month of 2025, an 82% drop—and the ongoing structural energy crisis. "Without a sustained improvement in the availability of oil and fuels, any official measure or policy loses its effectiveness," the organization concludes.
Impact on Cuban Society
The impact on the population is severe. With the euro at 620 CUP, the minimum pension of 4,000 CUP is worth a mere 6.45 euros. The official average salary of 6,930 CUP amounts to just over 11 euros at the informal exchange rate. A carton of eggs now costs more than 3,000 CUP, representing 75% of the minimum pension.
ElTOQUE highlights that its Market Sentiment Index reveals a moderate shift to the right over the past two weeks, suggesting upward pressure on the rate as more users are interested in purchasing dollars than selling them.
The new record for the euro, achieved on Friday, contrasts sharply with the Central Bank of Cuba's rate of 585.03 CUP for the same day, over 35 pesos below the informal market price, showcasing the disconnect between the official economy and the lived reality of the Cuban people.
OMFi projects that in May, the dollar could rise to 562 CUP and the euro to 640 CUP, further eroding the purchasing power of Cubans in the coming days.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Crisis
What factors are contributing to the Cuban peso's depreciation?
The depreciation is driven by the collapse of tourism and a structural energy crisis, which have intensified economic pressures on the Cuban peso.
How has the euro performed in the Cuban market recently?
The euro has been on a consistent rise, surpassing the 600 CUP mark on April 19 and continuing its upward trend to reach 620 CUP, setting a new high.
What are the projections for the MLC and euro in May?
Projections indicate that the MLC could reach 413 CUP, while the euro might climb to 640 CUP, exacerbating the financial strain on the Cuban population.