An independent survey exploring political and social views in Cuba received 42,263 valid responses, revealing that 60.9% of participants support direct U.S. military intervention, while 64.9% favor the overthrow of the current government "by any means necessary, including armed force," according to preliminary results.
When asked about forms of external pressure—with multiple answers allowed—direct U.S. military intervention was the top choice at 60.9%.
This was followed by targeted sanctions against government officials (54.3%), multilateral diplomatic pressure through the UN, OAS, and EU (49.0%), and international funding for civil society groups (19.1%).
Only 5.2% believed that Cuba should resolve its conflicts internally.
Regarding the preferred method to address the political conflict—only one option allowed—64.9% chose overthrow by any means, including armed intervention.
Meanwhile, 20.7% leaned towards dialogue and a negotiated transition, and 10.1% supported peaceful social mobilization. Just 1.9% opted for a gradual reform from within the government.
An overwhelming 96% of respondents believe a political change in Cuba is urgently needed.
Additional survey data reinforces the widespread dissatisfaction with the current system: 99% support eliminating the Communist Party as the sole political party, 80% back a transition to a liberal democracy and market economy, and 94% express deep dissatisfaction with the existing political system.
Only 4.7% blame the U.S. embargo for the country's problems, while 82.2% point to the lack of civil and political freedoms as the main issue.
These findings align with a Miami Herald survey conducted in April among 800 Cubans and Cuban-Americans in South Florida, which showed 79% supporting U.S. military intervention in Cuba. Fernand Amandi, president of Bendixen & Amandi International, interpreted these results as a "green light" for the Trump administration to consider military action.
The survey was promoted by a coalition of over 20 independent digital media outlets and Cuban civil society actors, launching on April 28.
Out of the 42,357 responses received, 94 were excluded (0.22%). According to anonymous geolocation, 58% of responses originated from within Cuba and 42% from abroad.
Despite the regime blocking access to the questionnaire from day one, participants on the island used VPNs to respond, highlighting both the information repression and the determination of Cubans to have their voices heard.
The regime reacted with disdain to both surveys.
Official lawmaker Carlos Miguel Pérez Reyes publicly discredited the Miami Herald survey on April 16, and the Granma newspaper dismissed it as "lies" on April 25.
The pro-government outlet Razones de Cuba, affiliated with State Security, labeled the digital survey a "statistical fraud" lacking scientific validity, a reaction that also drew criticism among Cubans.
Amelia Calzadilla, director of Ciudadanía y Libertad and a survey promoter, emphasized that over 95% of participants are dissatisfied with the government's performance.
Debate over potential direct action from Washington against Havana has intensified in recent months amidst a severe crisis marked by widespread blackouts, food shortages, and unprecedented emigration.
The site encuestascuba.net announced the survey's closure and stated that it will soon release the full report and microdata for public scrutiny, acknowledging the methodological limitations inherent in a self-selected online survey.
Key Insights on Cuban Public Opinion
What percentage of Cubans support U.S. military intervention?
According to the survey, 60.9% of Cubans support direct U.S. military intervention.
How do Cubans view the current political system?
The survey indicates that 99% of respondents support eliminating the Communist Party as the sole political entity, with 94% expressing deep dissatisfaction with the current political system.
What is the preferred method for political change in Cuba?
The preferred method for political change, according to 64.9% of respondents, is the overthrow of the current government by any means necessary, including armed intervention.