Venezuelan journalist and researcher Andrés Cañizález warns that the greatest threat facing Cuba isn't necessarily the downfall of its regime, but rather the possibility that such a collapse could lead to merely another form of authoritarian power, echoing the situation in Venezuela, instead of a true democratization.
In a conversation with Tania Costa from CiberCuba, Cañizález emphasized that after Nicolás Maduro was detained on January 3, 2026, and Delcy Rodríguez assumed the role of interim president, Cuba's situation has gained renewed significance for the Trump administration.
"Following the events in Venezuela this January and what can be seen as the United States' setback in Iran, Cuba's issue has become much more critical for the Trump administration. I see it as an increasingly urgent scenario to finally achieve what the U.S. has been striving for over the past several months: a regime change in Cuba," the expert stated.
Pressure Dynamics: Venezuela vs. Cuba
Cañizález drew comparisons between the military pressure exerted on Venezuela and the current pressures facing Cuba.
He noted that naval operations against Venezuela began in August 2025, with air deployments intensifying the pressure in October, culminating in January 2026. In contrast, the pressure on Cuba has been ongoing for less than five months since January.
"In Cuba, there is indeed a deployment of drones, which I believe serves as a significant warning," Cañizález mentioned.
The deployment is supported by documented actions. The U.S. conducted the military exercise FLEX2026 in Key West from April 24 to 30, 2026, incorporating armed drones, artificial intelligence, and combat ships within the operational range of the island.
Negotiation Challenges and Risks
Regarding the status of negotiations between Washington and Havana, Cañizález acknowledged the limitations of his perspective: "It's challenging to assess because we don't have the means to understand how advanced or at what stage these discussions are."
Direct talks between Washington and Havana collapsed on April 24 after Cuba rejected an ultimatum to release political prisoners.
The primary concern Cañizález identifies is that the White House might settle for a superficial outcome. "The danger lies in the simplistic notion that the White House's policy could result in a Cuban version of Delcy. This would pose a significant risk for Cuba, undermining the genuine democratization we hope for after decades under the Castro dictatorship," he warned.
Diplomatic Efforts and International Mediation
Cañizález differentiates structurally between the two regimes: Cuba is a totalitarian system with pervasive state, societal, and personal control, lacking organized opposition, whereas Venezuela represents a hybrid authoritarianism that allows some dissent. This distinction makes the "Delcy model" especially inadequate for the island.
In this context, Marco Rubio's visit to the Vatican — where he met with Pope Leo XIV — gains diplomatic importance. Rubio presented a proposal to expand humanitarian aid to Cuba through the Catholic Church.
The Vatican previously played a key role in the Obama-Castro rapprochement of 2014-2016, and Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla visited Rome in February 2026 to discuss mediation efforts with the Holy See.
Cañizález does not rule out the possibility of the Cuban regime being overthrown but stresses that this alone guarantees nothing. "I certainly see it as feasible that the current power structure in Cuba could be ousted. The big question remains whether this will lead to a shift in power dynamics similar to what we're observing in Venezuela," he concluded, leaving open the question that matters most to those yearning for a free and democratic Cuba.
Understanding Cuba's Political Landscape and Risks
What is the main threat to Cuba according to Andrés Cañizález?
According to Andrés Cañizález, the main threat to Cuba is not the fall of its regime but the potential for a reconfiguration into another form of authoritarian power, similar to Venezuela, rather than achieving true democratization.
How does the pressure on Cuba compare to that on Venezuela?
The pressure on Cuba has been ongoing for less than five months since January, whereas the military pressure on Venezuela involved naval operations starting in August 2025, with air deployments intensifying in October, taking six months to complete by January 2026.
What was the result of the negotiations between Washington and Havana?
The negotiations between Washington and Havana failed on April 24 after Cuba rejected an ultimatum to release political prisoners, highlighting the challenges in diplomatic discussions.