Economic Reforms Must Come First in Cuba, Says Analyst Rubén Cortés

In a recent interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba, analyst Rubén Cortés argued that economic reforms should take priority over political changes in Cuba. This stance contrasts sharply with the Cuban-American lobby in Washington, which insists on regime change as a prerequisite for any diplomatic opening.

"That narrative was going well until the Cuban lobby in Washington and numerous anti-Castro Cuban figures began demanding political change before economic reform," Cortés stated.

From the outset, Cortés made his personal stance clear: "I am anti-Castro. My books are there to prove it. They are signed. You are what you sign."

Understanding the Cuban Regime: Dictatorship vs. Tyranny

Cortés also introduced a critical distinction between dictatorship and tyranny to better grasp the Cuban regime's nature.

"A tyranny is not the same as a dictatorship. A dictatorship can have a veneer of democracy, as seen in Venezuela. A tyranny, like Cuba's regime, lacks any facade and operates like a rogue state—imprisoning and stifling freedom and business," he explained.

Despite acknowledging this harsh reality, Cortés advocated for a pragmatic approach: "If life gives you lemons, make lemonade."

The Argument for Economic Transformation

To support his viewpoint, Cortés referenced a Marxist principle he openly acknowledged: "Marxism states that existence determines consciousness, and people think based on their living conditions. I think like someone who lives between Miami and Mexico City. You think like someone in Madrid, and a farmer from Pinar del Río thinks like a farmer from Pinar del Río."

He emphasized that this material reality is what must change first to enable sustainable political transformation.

"I'm a proponent of economic change coming first. Economic shifts generally lead to political shifts; money tends to assert itself," he argued.

Cortés illustrated his point with a scenario involving foreign companies: "Imagine Coca-Cola entering Cuba, allowing Cubans to earn and spend on a Coke or a steak sandwich from a private vendor. That's a significant step toward resolving a 67-year-old problem."

Critique of Sudden Regime Change

In contrast, Cortés dismissed the idea of a sudden regime change as unrealistic, especially when former President Trump suggested that the USS Abraham Lincoln could pass by Cuba after military operations.

"The notion of a sudden overhaul—where a carrier arrives, someone gets whisked away, and a new president appears overnight—is fanciful," he remarked.

He cited Spain's democratic transition as a model, encapsulating it with: "For everything to change, some things must remain the same."

Cortés also compared the situation to Venezuela, noting that Díaz-Canel has ruled out negotiating political changes. The Venezuelan transition remains fraught with anxiety, serving as a cautionary tale about the perils of radical change.

The interview followed Trump's May 1 executive order, which expanded sanctions against the Cuban regime, freezing officials' assets in the U.S. and introducing secondary sanctions on foreign companies and banks engaged in strategic sectors on the island.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez responded to Washington's pressure with a terse statement: "We are not intimidated."