Donald Trump's recent remarks suggest a swift resolution: maximum pressure, a show of strength, and the potential immediate capitulation of the Cuban regime.
However, the historical context, Havana's official rhetoric, and the nature of authority on the island require a more nuanced view of this hypothesis. The question extends beyond whether they can endure; it also includes whether they are willing to withstand the pressure.
From an official standpoint, the answer seems straightforward. For decades, the regime has crafted its narrative around resistance and confrontation with the United States.
Within this framework, the concept of a "people's war" or even guerrilla warfare has been propagated as a defensive doctrine. This is not a hastily devised plan; it is ingrained in the political and military imagination of the system.
The Reality Behind the Rhetoric
Yet, rhetoric and reality are two different things.
Cuba's military capabilities fall far short of posing any real threat to the United States. Its equipment is outdated, logistical capabilities are limited, and strategic maneuverability is practically non-existent when faced with a superpower that has total superiority in air, sea, technology, and resources.
An aircraft carrier like the USS Abraham Lincoln would not only symbolize power but also highlight the stark asymmetry. In strict military terms, the possibility of conventional resistance is virtually non-existent.
Is Guerrilla Warfare a Viable Option?
Even the scenario of irregular warfare raises significant doubts. Guerrilla warfare requires more than light arms and political will; it demands popular support, social cohesion, and ideological motivation. This is where the Cuban regime faces its greatest challenge.
The country is mired in a profound crisis. Shortages, prolonged blackouts, deteriorating basic services, and massive emigration have eroded the connection between the government and its citizens.
Dissatisfaction is no longer on the fringes; it is structural. Unlike previous historical moments, there is now a clear disconnect between the official narrative and the everyday reality of the Cuban people.
Internal Struggles and External Influences
In this context, it is hard to envision large segments of the population willing to fight for a system they hold responsible for their plight.
The events of July 11, 2021, are critical. Those protests demonstrated a latent capacity for social mobilization, even in the face of harsh repression. Although subsequent demonstrations have been more sporadic, reports of protests over blackouts, food shortages, or living conditions persist.
This does not necessarily mean the population is ready for a widespread uprising, but it does indicate that active support for the regime is much weaker than official propaganda suggests.
An external factor also plays a role: the Venezuelan precedent. The fall of Nicolás Maduro and the decisive role of the United States in that process have sent a clear message to allied governments: the indiscriminate use of force against the population can have direct international consequences.
These dynamics constrain the Cuban regime's options.
Potential Outcomes of a Show of Force
If a demonstration of force such as the deployment of an aircraft carrier off the coast of Havana were to occur, the most likely outcome would not be an immediate surrender, nor a prolonged classic resistance. Instead, it would trigger a period of intense internal tension.
The power structure might attempt to maintain control through symbolic mobilizations, resistance speeches, and reinforced internal security. However, their capacity to sustain a real conflict would depend on factors that currently appear weakened: internal loyalty, elite cohesion, and effective control over the population.
The crucial question is not whether they can fight but whether they can endure the political and social costs of doing so.
Unlike in the past, the regime now faces not only external pressure but also an internal erosion accumulated over years.
The notion of a quick surrender may be optimistic. However, a prolonged resistance also seems unlikely.
What is more probable is an intermediate scenario: tensions, internal movements, possible fractures within the power structure, and a population watching, waiting to see how far each actor will go.
Ultimately, the outcome will not solely depend on the military might of the United States or the rhetoric of the Cuban regime. It will hinge on something more challenging to measure: how much actual control the regime retains in a country where the crisis has surpassed the ability to use fear as the sole mechanism of governance.
The answer to this crucial question might emerge if the United States uses the Abraham Lincoln to catalyze the forces currently at play in the dramatic Cuban landscape.
Key Questions About the Cuban Regime's Resilience
What is the Cuban regime's official stance on resistance?
The Cuban regime has historically built its narrative around resistance and confrontation with the United States, promoting concepts like a "people's war" or guerrilla warfare as part of its defensive doctrine.
How has the internal crisis in Cuba affected the regime's control?
The ongoing crisis, characterized by shortages, blackouts, and massive emigration, has significantly weakened the connection between the government and its citizens, eroding the regime's control.
Could an aircraft carrier like the USS Abraham Lincoln influence the Cuban regime's actions?
The deployment of an aircraft carrier could serve as a powerful symbol of U.S. superiority and potentially act as a catalyst for internal tensions within Cuba, challenging the regime's ability to maintain control.