Gerardo Hernández Nordelo, the national coordinator of the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution (CDR) and one of Cuba's so-called "Five Heroes," recently claimed that if the United States were to invade Cuba, a guerrilla war would be launched "the day after" the occupation, drawing comparisons to the Vietnam War. However, Cuban political analyst and journalist Camilo Loret de Mola has thoroughly debunked this threat, calling it a baseless fantasy.
Hernández admitted that Cuba is not equipped to win a direct confrontation with the U.S. military or prevent an occupation. He suggested that the "surprise" would come later: "The day after, our clandestine units will activate, aiming to conduct sabotage, and indirectly confront the occupiers until they are convinced they must leave because they will face a long-term, daily defeat in this battle."
The Vietnam Comparison: A Flawed Analogy
In an interview with Tania Costa, Loret de Mola expressed his skepticism, stating, "This guy is trying to scare the Trump Administration with a fantasy." He argued that comparing the situation to Vietnam is misguided both geopolitically and logistically. "Vietnam had a direct pipeline to China via the border, allowing a powerful Soviet Union at the time to supply all possible armaments and resources for the war effort. Today, the Soviet Union is gone, and no equivalent ally exists," he explained.
Moreover, Loret de Mola pointed out that unlike Vietnam, Cuba is an island with no land borders, outdated Soviet-era weaponry, and no external sponsor willing to bear the geopolitical cost of supporting a guerrilla movement against Washington in 2026.
Cuba's Lack of Support and Resources
Loret de Mola posed a direct question: "Do you really think that in today's geopolitical landscape, China or Russia would risk becoming the sponsor or financier of these individual guerrillas?"
The analyst further questioned the social base of such a supposed resistance: "Who are you counting on? The same Cuban who wakes up every day without electricity, food, or with garbage piled up outside their door? Do you truly believe that person will fight for you?"
He illustrated his point by quoting a Cuban woman he keeps in touch with, who responded to this question with, "Look, let them call my neighbor, the mother of the twins, who when asked to fight for Díaz-Canel, will end up fighting against them instead. We just want them to leave."
Political Context: Campaigns and Intimidation
Hernández's statements come amid the "Mi firma por la Patria" campaign, launched on April 19 during the 65th-anniversary celebration of the Bay of Pigs invasion, which pressures citizens to sign petitions in workplaces and schools, pledging to defend the revolution against a potential U.S. military intervention.
Loret de Mola offers a blunt assessment of these signatures: "People are signing out of fear of losing their jobs, some are indifferent, and others are die-hard revolutionaries. But people are signing. Unbelievable."
The analyst believes Hernández's rhetoric is intended to intimidate the Trump administration by invoking the failures of Afghanistan and Iraq. However, he warns that Cuba is not comparable to those situations, lacking porous borders and guaranteed external supplies.
Loret de Mola estimates that 90% of participants in the May Day parade don't believe in the rhetoric being sold to them. He concludes with a reflection on the fragility of the entire threat: "Even if they believed it, even if they considered it a possibility, they have no means to defend it, no way to sustain it."
Understanding the Reality of Cuba's Defense Claims
What did Gerardo Hernández claim about a U.S. invasion?
Gerardo Hernández claimed that if the United States were to invade Cuba, a guerrilla war would be initiated "the day after" the occupation, comparing it to Vietnam.
Why does Camilo Loret de Mola consider Hernández's threat a fantasy?
Camilo Loret de Mola considers the threat a fantasy because Cuba lacks the geopolitical support, military resources, and social base necessary to sustain such a resistance.
How does the situation in Cuba differ from Vietnam?
Unlike Vietnam, Cuba is an island without land borders and lacks a powerful ally like the Soviet Union to supply arms and resources. It has outdated Soviet-era weapons and no external sponsor willing to support a guerrilla movement.