On Friday, Cuban lawyer, journalist, and political analyst Camilo Loret de Mola issued a stark warning about any potential transition scenarios in Cuba. "Nothing in Cuba is going to start off well. No change in Cuba will begin smoothly. Any shift in Cuba will be dramatic, it will be traumatic," he declared during an interview with Tania Costa. This conversation was broadcast live, coinciding with the official May Day parade organized by the regime in Havana.
Loret de Mola, who previously served as legal counsel for Duque Hernández and has 15 years of legal practice in Cuba, now resides in South Florida. He emphasized that the Trump Administration must consider this premise as a fundamental point of analysis before any engagement with the island.
The analyst highlighted the dire predicament of the Cuban populace as the root of the prevailing pessimism. "The population has nothing. The only thing Cubans have are hopes, hopes for change," he stated.
The Gap Between Expectations and Reality
Loret de Mola pointed out that the disparity between expectations and reality is one of the most significant challenges of the transition process. He cautioned that Cubans on the island are living in a state of "self-compensation," disconnected from reality. "When the Americans arrive, they believe the soldier landing on the shores will be handing out dollars, food, or business opportunities, essentially giving away businesses," he explained.
Contrary to this illusion, the analyst described what he envisions as the onset of the transition. "The initial phase will be a challenging one for a poverty-stricken country, where we must start learning about the real world, a world where you have to work to produce, a world where the state is no longer an entity you exploit for survival."
Challenging the Exiled Cuban Dream
This perspective stands in stark contrast to what Loret de Mola terms the "sugar-coated dream" of the Cuban exile community. "That sweetened dream of many of my friends in exile of returning to Cuba to find the Cuba they left behind—such a world only exists in their minds," he remarked, addressing both the diaspora and those who believe they have prepackaged solutions for reconstruction.
To illustrate the uncertainty of planning a transition of such magnitude, Loret de Mola referenced military strategist Clausewitz: "One always prepares for yesterday's war. Tomorrow's war is never predictable." He used this quote to argue that no current political or economic plan will align with the reality that will need to be faced on the ground.
The Current Economic and Political Context
His comments come at a time of heightened tension. The Cuban economy shrank by 5% in 2025, with an overall decline of more than 15% since 2020. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) projects Cuba's economy to be the worst in Latin America by 2026. Negotiations between Trump and the regime, involving talks with GAESA representatives and Raúl Castro's grandson, are at a standstill. On April 24, Gerardo Hernández threatened guerrilla warfare in response to a potential U.S. military occupation.
In this climate, Loret de Mola also dismissed the notion that anyone possesses a "magic wand." "Cuba's solution must be developed on the go," he insisted, rejecting both the exile's formulas and promises of quick change. Meanwhile, the Cuban opposition demands the exclusion of the Castro family from any transition process.
"Nothing, absolutely nothing, will go well from the start. There's no way to make it go well initially. We must start building from the ground up," the analyst concluded, before delivering what he described as the only realistic call to action.
"It's time to tighten our belts, lace up our boots, and fight hard to change the future for our children and grandchildren on the island."
Understanding the Cuban Transition and Challenges
Why does Loret de Mola believe no transition in Cuba will start smoothly?
Camilo Loret de Mola believes that any transition in Cuba will be fraught with challenges because of the severe economic and social hardships currently faced by the Cuban population. He emphasizes that the expectations for change are high, but the reality will involve significant difficulties and adjustments.
What is the "sugar-coated dream" Loret de Mola refers to?
The "sugar-coated dream" refers to the idealized vision held by many in the Cuban exile community who hope to return to a Cuba that no longer exists. Loret de Mola argues that this dream is disconnected from the present realities of the island and the challenges a transition would entail.
How does Loret de Mola envision the start of a Cuban transition?
Loret de Mola envisions the beginning of a Cuban transition as a difficult phase characterized by widespread poverty and the need for Cubans to learn about the real world, where effort and productivity are essential. He stresses the importance of building from the ground up and adjusting expectations.