Cuba's Liberation Forecasted Before Summer: Analyst's Bold Prediction on the Regime

Exiled Cuban economist Elías Amor has stirred interest with his recent forecast about Cuba's future, made public this Thursday. His insights have resonated among those engaged in discussions about the island's political landscape.

"I believe we'll witness a free Cuba before summer, ushering in a completely new era unlike anything we've experienced in the past 67 years," Amor asserted confidently.

The remarks were delivered during an economic analysis program on CiberCuba, where Amor examined the grim projections from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) for Cuba in 2026. These projections position Cuba as the poorest-performing economy in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a projected GDP drop of 6.5%, surpassing even Haiti's downturn.

Amor was unequivocal in his optimism, stating, "I think Cuba will transition to democracy and freedom much faster than Venezuela."

He referenced the Venezuelan transition, where Delcy Rodríguez has taken the lead following Nicolás Maduro's ousting in January 2026. According to Amor, Rodríguez is "a very intelligent and sharp woman who has managed to establish a semblance of calm and stability," but he cautioned, "In Cuba, there is no Delcy."

The Leadership Void in Cuba

Amor dismissed the current regime figures as potential catalysts for change, bluntly stating, "No, they are a bunch of pot-bellied communists lacking Delcy's profile."

He specifically ruled out Josefina Vidal, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro "El cangrejo," and Sandro Castro, who is fond of cars, as incapable of spearheading a transition.

This assessment emerges as Miguel Díaz-Canel clings to power while Cuba is in decline, having even admitted to not speaking directly with Marco Rubio and rejecting calls for the release of political prisoners.

The main barrier identified by Amor for the transition is the lack of leadership. "The problem we have in Cuba is that we don't have an Adolfo Suárez. It's very sad. We don't have the architect of change."

Amor considers the Spanish transition a model to emulate. However, journalist Tania Costa pointed out during the discussion that Suárez was "a virtually unknown figure who successfully guided, with the king's help, the Spanish transition" and that "no one expected him to play such a historic role."

Amor remained unconvinced. "In Cuba, you don't see any leaders, there are no figures moving in that arena. This only increases our desperation," the economist admitted.

Economic Challenges and the Role of the U.S.

Previous analyses have already warned of five potential scenarios for Cuba, with negotiated partial reforms being the most likely, though a total collapse is becoming increasingly plausible given the rapid deterioration.

Another analysis indicated that Cuba might veer towards becoming a failed state if a structured transition does not occur.

Regarding Washington's role in this process, Amor was emphatic: "We must ensure that the United States continues to assist and maintain the support that is crucial for Cubans," cautioning that during times of change, "people can often get carried away and make mistakes."

The economic backdrop reinforcing this structural pessimism is stark. According to ECLAC, Cuba's GDP per capita fell to $1,082.8 in 2025, the lowest in the region compared to a regional average of $10,212.

Amor estimates that the Cuban economy will have shrunk by nearly 26% of its GDP since 2020, a decline comparable to the Special Period but extended over time.

The Economist Intelligence Unit projected in March 2026 a 7.2% GDP contraction for this year, with a cumulative drop of 23% since 2019, figures that bolster the collapse scenario Amor describes as the precursor to change.