According to economist Elías Amor, Cuba's economy is on track for a drastic 26% decline from 2020 to 2026, as forecasted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Amor warns that Cuba is now the worst-managed economy in Latin America and the Caribbean, even trailing behind Haiti.
The ECLAC report released on April 27 anticipates a 6.5% contraction in Cuba's GDP by 2026, marking the worst performance among the 27 nations in the region. Coupled with a 3.8% decline predicted for 2025, both Cuba and Haiti are dragging Latin America into its lowest growth figures.
“Over the 2025-26 biennium, the Cuban economy will shrink by 10.3%. Remarkably, not even Haiti will fare this poorly. Haiti is struggling, too, but its economy is expected to contract by only 4.1%, less than half of Cuba's projected decline,” Amor noted.
Venezuela's Contrast and Energy Crisis
Amor finds the contrast with Venezuela particularly telling. ECLAC projects a 6.5% growth for Venezuela by 2026, yet emphasizes that this recovery will not benefit the Cuban regime. "As Venezuela begins to stabilize, the issues it has caused will dissipate, but Cuba will not see any advantage," he remarked.
This bleak economic situation is exacerbated by a collapse in oil supply. Cuba has admitted it only has enough fuel to last until late April, and the economist is critical of the regime's makeshift solutions: "Chinese solar panels won't solve Cuba's energy crisis. Investments are needed, power plants must be upgraded, and reliance on Cuban oil, which they claim is good but is not, should cease as it risks damaging machinery and infrastructure."
Comparison with the Special Period
The cumulative economic decline since 2020 now exceeds the duration of Cuba's Special Period. While the Special Period saw a sharper contraction in a single year, it was followed by a relatively swift recovery; the current crisis has persisted for six years with no signs of improvement.
Cuba's per capita GDP fell to a mere $1,082.8 in 2025, the lowest in the region compared to a regional average of $10,212. Amor highlights that factoring in inflation would make these numbers even more alarming.
Government's Silence and Prospective Changes
Meanwhile, the regime remains silent. ECLAC's data highlights the gravity of Cuba's economic plight, yet the government has chosen not to disclose these findings. The state-run newspaper Granma devoted only half a page to the report, omitting Cuba's specific outcomes. "I consider this a severe irresponsibility," declared Amor.
When asked about the regime's future, the economist does not shy away. "Currently, the regime must be deeply concerned about what's coming. They barely scraped through 2025, but 2026 is set to deliver a crushing blow," he stated.
As Díaz-Canel clings to power, Cuba continues to sink without any apparent governmental response. Amor is straightforward: "They lack the tools and knowledge to handle this economic crisis. It’s likely they might step aside."
“I believe the best solution for Cuba's transition is not violence but a decisive stance on leadership change,” the economist concluded, suggesting that the regime might concede before the economic collapse leads to social upheaval.
Frequently Asked Questions about Cuba's Economic Crisis
What is the projected economic decline for Cuba by 2026?
Cuba's economy is forecasted to decline by 26% from 2020 to 2026, according to ECLAC projections.
How does Cuba's economic situation compare to Haiti's?
Cuba's economy is expected to contract by 10.3% over the 2025-26 biennium, significantly worse than Haiti's projected 4.1% decline.
What challenges does Cuba face regarding its energy supply?
Cuba faces a critical energy crisis, with fuel supplies only sufficient until late April. The government's reliance on Chinese solar panels and outdated infrastructure fails to address the root of the problem.