Cuban exile businessman and veteran Santiago Álvarez Fernández-Magriñá declared on Thursday that the Cuban opposition, both within the island and among exiles, is preparing a joint public statement with two essential demands for any transition process in Cuba: the right to participate in the transition and the complete exclusion of direct representatives of the Castro family.
Álvarez, an 84-year-old veteran of the Brigade 2506, made these remarks amid recent accusations by Senator Marco Rubio, who claimed that Cuba harbored Chinese and Russian intelligence bases on its soil—a development Álvarez sees as a potential deadlock in negotiations between Washington and Havana.
The exiled leader openly acknowledged that the Trump administration is negotiating with members of the ruling family's circle: "They are currently talking with the close relatives of the Castro family, those who remain: Raúl Castro, 'El Cangrejo,' and the other son who controls the armed and repressive forces."
Known as "El Cangrejo," Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro and a lieutenant colonel in the MININT, has been identified as a key interlocutor with Rubio's team since February 2026.
Álvarez did not dispute Washington's right to conduct its foreign policy: "Cuban policy is directed by Americans, not Cubans. They have the right to craft their policy."
However, he drew a clear line: "Where we want a say is in the transition itself."
The businessman highlighted that these regime interlocutors own GAESA, the Cuban military conglomerate, which reportedly manages "between 15 and 18 billion dollars in cash, while Cuba lacks funds to pay for oil."
A BBC report this month estimated GAESA's total assets at nearly 17.9 billion dollars.
Álvarez's stance allows for Cuban state officials to have some role in a transition but categorically excludes the Castro family.
This position contrasts with the Trump administration's negotiation strategy, which involves dialogue with representatives of the Castro clan, causing tension with sectors of the historical exile community. Analysts describe the regime's sought model as "Cubastroika": economic reforms without real political change.
Meanwhile, the new generation of Castros is gaining ground in power structures: Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, a great-nephew of Fidel and Raúl, has served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade since 2025, positioning himself as a potential successor to Díaz-Canel in a controlled transition.
Álvarez, who financially supports around 150 families of Cuban political prisoners each month, was emphatic in summarizing the opposition's position: "In the transition itself, we believe that Cuban opponents both in Cuba and in exile, over 67 years and multiple generations, have earned the right to participate in a transition in Cuba. And we have earned the right to demand that no transition, at any time, includes direct representatives of the Castro family."
Key Questions About the Cuban Transition and Castro Family Exclusion
Why does the Cuban opposition want the Castro family excluded from the transition?
The Cuban opposition believes that excluding the Castro family is essential to ensure a genuine transition that allows for political reforms and breaks with the past leadership that has dominated Cuba for decades.
What role does GAESA play in the Cuban economy?
GAESA is a military conglomerate in Cuba that controls significant economic resources and assets, estimated to be worth billions of dollars, making it a key player in the nation's economy.
What is the stance of the Trump administration regarding the Castro family's role in Cuba's transition?
The Trump administration has been engaging in dialogue with members of the Castro family, which contrasts with the opposition's demand for their exclusion, indicating a strategy that includes negotiation with the current regime's representatives.