Fewer Green Cards and Increased Arrests: Shifting Landscape for Cubans in the U.S. in Recent Months

For years, arriving in the United States presented thousands of Cubans with a clear path: the opportunity to regularize their status after a year, progressing towards permanent residency under the Cuban Adjustment Act. Today, that path has become uncertain, sluggish, and in many instances, nearly inaccessible.

The change is significant.

A report from the Cato Institute, drawing on official data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), highlights a dramatic shift in the immigration landscape for Cubans between late 2024 and early 2026: fewer green cards approved and a sharp rise in arrests within the country.

The Plummet in Residency Approvals

Until October 2024, before new immigration policies were implemented, over 10,000 Cubans per month were obtaining permanent residency in the United States. This constant flow was a testament to the normal functioning of the system, particularly benefiting those eligible under the Cuban Adjustment Act.

However, that reality altered within months.

By January 2026, the numbers had plummeted to almost symbolic levels: merely dozens of approvals each month, with some months seeing approvals barely reaching double digits, leaving thousands of applications stalled. In a specific instance, the government received over 7,000 applications in one month, but only 15 Cubans secured a green card.

This resulted in an approximate 99% drop in residency approvals for Cubans, according to calculations by the Cato Institute.

The slowdown doesn't merely mean administrative delays. It has created a legal limbo for thousands who were already within the U.S. immigration system, many of whom have resided in the country for years with expectations of regularization.

Escalation in ICE Arrests

While residency approvals have dwindled, arrests have surged. At the end of 2024, ICE was conducting fewer than 200 monthly arrests of Cubans. A year later, by late 2025, this figure had exceeded 1,000 arrests per month, marking an estimated 463% increase.

This stark contrast - fewer legal pathways and heightened enforcement - is no coincidence. The Cato Institute's report suggests that these trends are interconnected: by slowing or freezing immigration processes, more individuals find themselves at risk of losing their status or unable to regularize it, making them more susceptible to detention.

The report states that preventing immigrants from obtaining or maintaining legal status is a necessary condition for increasing deportations.

Underlying Policy Changes

The shift in statistics is attributed to a series of measures adopted during Donald Trump’s administration, aimed at tightening the immigration system both at entry and for legal stay in the country.

Key actions highlighted by the report include:

• Freezing or slowing down permanent residency applications.
• Suspending status adjustment procedures.
• Reviewing and eliminating previous humanitarian programs.
• Cancelling permits such as parole for certain groups.
• Enhancing coordination between USCIS and ICE in cases with pending applications.

In practice, this means individuals who could previously progress towards residency now find themselves ensnared in unresolved processes, even losing their existing status while waiting.

The report goes further, suggesting that this dynamic is not a side effect but a deliberate strategy: reducing legal immigration to facilitate deportation policies.

Impact on Cuban Migrants

The impact is particularly pronounced within the Cuban community, which for decades has received differentiated treatment under the U.S. immigration system.

The Cuban Adjustment Act allowed island nationals to apply for residency after a year and a day in the U.S., a mechanism that eased the integration of generations of migrants.

Today, that process is unpredictable. Applications that were once resolved relatively quickly are now frozen for months. Programs that enabled legal entry have been dismantled. Those meeting the criteria to adjust their status face the risk of detention while they wait.

The result is a growing sense of uncertainty, especially in areas like South Florida, where a significant portion of the Cuban community in the United States resides.

Broader Implications for Other Migrants

Although Cubans are among the most affected, they are not alone. The tightening of the immigration system has also impacted other nationalities, particularly Venezuelans and recipients of humanitarian programs. The suspension of procedures and increased scrutiny have left thousands of families in precarious legal situations.

In fact, the Cato Institute's report notes that permanent residency approvals have dropped by half for applicants of all nationalities, with even sharper declines in humanitarian categories like asylum and refuge.

Expanding Political Debate: Control Versus Legality

The numbers have intensified the debate in the United States over immigration policy. On one hand, organizations like the Cato Institute warn that it’s not just irregular immigration being curbed, but legal immigration too, with the administrative system being used as a control tool. On the other, authorities claim that the measures aim to reinforce law enforcement and organize the immigration system.

Amid this dispute are thousands of migrants - many of them Cubans - who arrived in the country relying on a process that now appears to be at a standstill.

The change is clear: fewer green cards, more detentions. For those hoping to regularize their status, the future seems far more uncertain than just two years ago.