Why Cuba's Situation Is Distinct from Venezuela and Iran

Cuba's political and economic landscape is fundamentally different from that of Venezuela and Iran. This structural distinction means that scenarios of collapse or transition applicable to Caracas or Tehran cannot be directly mirrored in Havana, according to experts consulted by SWI swissinfo.ch this week.

Several factors set the island nation apart: the lack of massive energy resources, a collective power structure, its geographical proximity to the United States, an absence of a cohesive opposition, and the political influence of the Cuban diaspora in Washington.

The Energy Disparity

Venezuela has built its regime on the world's largest oil reserves, providing Cuba with up to 100,000 barrels daily at its peak. Iran combines its oil-driven economy with nuclear capabilities and long-range missiles. Conversely, Cuba lacks significant hydrocarbon resources; its main assets are nickel and cobalt, which hold less strategic importance.

Cuban economist Ricardo Torres succinctly encapsulates the situation: "Cuba is more of a potential than an immediate force. It needs complete reconstruction, unlike Venezuela or Iran with their valuable oil reserves."

A Distributed Power Structure

Unlike a centralized power figure, Cuba's authority is distributed among the Communist Party, the Revolutionary Armed Forces—which control approximately 60% of the economy—and historical figures like Raúl Castro, aged 94.

Cuban academic Tamarys Bahamonde notes that external pressure tends to solidify the regime rather than fracture it: "External threats encourage the closing of ranks."

Furthermore, there are no clear signs of fragmentation within the government. Cuban historian Pável Alemán remarks, "For the United States, it won't be easy to find a counterpart willing to negotiate behind the back of Cuban society to initiate a government replacement project."

The Opposition's Lack of Cohesion

Experts assert that the Cuban opposition lacks the organizational level and support achieved by figures like Venezuela's María Corina Machado. Former Cuban diplomat Carlos Alzugaray states, "There are no figures or programs that generate consensus."

Current Strain on the Island

The debate unfolds at a time of heightened pressure on Havana. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba were abruptly halted, removing 30% to 35% of Cuba's crude supply.

This has had a devastating impact on the population: power outages lasting over 20 hours daily, more than 96,000 surgeries postponed, and nearly half a million children attending shortened school days.

Alzugaray warns that, due to geographic proximity, any regime collapse could trigger an immediate wave of migration to the United States—a scenario that the Trump administration cannot afford to overlook. "It's a country just 90 miles away, you can't ignore it," he asserts.

The Influence of the Cuban Diaspora

Another factor distinguishing Cuba from Venezuela and Iran is the political clout of Cuban-Americans. The Cuban diaspora constitutes 13% of Miami's metropolitan population and has elected two senators and nine federal representatives. Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American Secretary of State, influences every White House decision concerning the island.

"Trump's administration must consider these interests, forces, and pressures," emphasizes economist Ricardo Torres.

Alzugaray believes the Cuban regime is "between a rock and a hard place and will need to act," but he also notes that the White House "urgently needs to resolve something with Cuba" before the November elections.

On the island, Díaz-Canel has opted for negotiation without relinquishing control. On March 13, he confirmed direct talks with Trump administration representatives after initially denying them.

On April 20, Washington issued a two-week ultimatum for the release of high-profile prisoners. Díaz-Canel threatened to break off negotiations if Trump insists on regime change: "Our internal issues are not up for discussion with the United States."

The dictator maintains his bellicose stance, insisting that Cuba must prepare for war, although experts point out that the country lacks Iran's military capability and Venezuela's resources to sustain a prolonged conflict.

Analysts in Miami warn that no agreement between the US and Cuba is feasible under current conditions, leaving the island caught between Washington's external pressure and internal collapse accelerated by 67 years of communist dictatorship.