Orestes Lorenzo Challenges Cuban Regime: "The Armed Forces Lack the Will to Fight"

Orestes Lorenzo Pérez, a former lieutenant colonel and defected pilot from Cuba's Revolutionary Armed Forces, recently shared an in-depth critique on his Facebook page. He deconstructs the Cuban regime's heightened campaign for combat readiness in light of potential U.S. military intervention.

This analysis follows statements made by Díaz-Canel on April 16, where he publicly warned of a possible U.S. military aggression against Cuba during the 65th anniversary of the Revolution, describing the situation as "absolutely challenging."

Lorenzo argues that the core issue with the Cuban Armed Forces (FAR) isn't outdated weaponry, but a deeper problem: "The incapacity of the Cuban military to defend itself lies not in its material equipment, but in its ethical motivation, the so-called 'combat moral.' In Cuba, not a trace of it remains."

The Transformation of Cuba's Military

The ex-officer outlines a historical transformation of Cuba's military forces: following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Fidel Castro repurposed the FAR as a tool for internal control, sidelining the most competent officers in favor of the loyal but inept.

"The first officers to be retired were the most intelligent and capable. Anyone with a shred of common sense or who shone on their own was removed from the Armed Forces," Lorenzo explained.

According to his analysis, the Cuban military's true mission ceased to be national defense long ago.

Loyalty Over National Defense

"Blind loyalty to the Castro family became the sole requirement. There was no defending the nation, no confronting external enemies. Protecting this family from the people was—and remains—the only mission," he emphasized.

Lorenzo also criticized the Territorial Troops Militia, whose lack of arms, he claims, reveals the regime's fear of its own citizens: "Where is their weaponry to fight? They fear the people so much that they don't even dare to arm them."

The Reality of Cuba's Military Strategy

On the only real plan he attributes to the Cuban military leadership, Lorenzo is blunt: "The only well-developed plan they have is how they will run, how they will hide, and how they will attempt to escape."

Lorenzo's analysis aligns with the assessments of other former FAR officers. Retired Lieutenant Colonel Mario Riva Morales stated in January 2026 that the Cuban army stands no chance against the United States, dismissing the 'war of the entire people' doctrine as outdated and ineffective.

Technical data supports this assessment: the FAR's MiG-29s are inoperative due to a shortage of Russian parts, over 60% of Cuban radars are non-functional, and Cuba lacks integrated long-range air defense systems.

The regime has declared 2026 the "Year of Defense Preparation," initiating intensive anti-aircraft brigade and militia exercises every weekend—a display Lorenzo describes as theater for internal consumption.

"All that warlike and patriotic nonsense they proclaim is mere theater for internal consumption in Cuba. And that, my dear friends, is something the United States Southern Command knows and understands very well," concludes the pilot.