Trump Intensifies Pressure on Cuba, Creating Uncertain Future: Reform, Intervention, or Escalating Crisis?

The Trump administration is reportedly considering four potential strategies for dealing with Cuba: forging an economic agreement, initiating a regime change, launching military intervention, or simply taking no action at all. Analysts have described this situation as politically volatile with no straightforward solutions, according to an analysis published Saturday by USA TODAY.

Following the imposition of an oil embargo that has brought the island to the brink of a humanitarian crisis, President Donald Trump vowed at a rally in Phoenix last Thursday that this "great fortress" would soon bring a new dawn for Cuba. Addressing the Cuban-American community in the Miami area and referencing the "brutality" their families endured, the president asserted, "Now, watch what happens."

However, each potential path is fraught with political challenges. As noted by the American media outlet, the decisions ahead are complex and fraught with risks.

Economic Agreement: A Road with Obstacles

The first approach involves an economic agreement. In February, Trump mentioned sending Secretary of State Marco Rubio to negotiate with high-level Cuban officials, suggesting a "friendly takeover of Cuba." Reports from March indicated that discussions included allowing the Castro family to remain, alongside agreements related to ports, energy, and tourism.

John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, commented, "Nobody should be surprised if Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner eventually find themselves in Havana negotiating with the Cuban government."

Nevertheless, this approach clashes with the Cuban-American bloc in Congress. Representative María Elvira Salazar firmly told a State Department official during a hearing last Wednesday, "We are not going to do business with the Castros. They need to leave and start from scratch." Congressman Carlos Giménez, the only member of Congress born in Cuba, cautioned that the regime's intent is merely to buy time: "All they want is time, time to survive. And they are very skilled at that."

Regime Change without Military Force

The second option, a forced regime change without military intervention, would involve cutting remittances, halting flights, and sanctioning countries that supply oil to the island. However, Bustamante warns, "This risks creating a humanitarian situation. They are not very willing to do that."

Military Intervention: A High-Stakes Option

The third option, military intervention, is deemed the most perilous. Last Tuesday, sources confirmed that the Pentagon has discreetly ramped up its planning for a potential operation in Cuba. The following day, a Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone conducted a six-hour mission along the island's southern coast. When questioned about this aboard Air Force One, Trump remarked, "It depends on your definition of military action."

Brian Fonseca from the Jack D. Gordon Institute of Public Policy at Florida International University noted that flying over Cuba's coast "maintains the credibility of military options." Senator Roger Wicker, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, stated he had not participated in such discussions: "It seems we have two wars to focus on right now."

Inaction: A Risky Gamble

The fourth option is to do nothing, maintain the embargo, and wait for an internal collapse. Trump stated on April 13 at the White House, "We might stop in Cuba after finishing with this (Iran), but Cuba is a nation that has been horribly governed for many years by Castro." A senior White House official confirmed that Cuba remains a priority, but the president wants to address the conflict with Iran first.

Giménez warned that inaction could carry a high political cost for Trump: "I think not delivering is worse than doing nothing at all."