The informal currency market in Cuba witnessed a significant rise in the dollar price as the weekend began.
Recently, the U.S. dollar surged to 522 CUP, marking a two-peso increase from its previous value. This sets a new record for the dollar's selling price on the island.
This latest spike confirms the ongoing trend of the Cuban peso's devaluation in the informal market, which plays a crucial role in reflecting the true economic conditions due to the absence of a functional official exchange market.
A Snapshot of Current Exchange Rates
The euro currently stands at 590 CUP, maintaining its level from the previous day.
Meanwhile, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) is now averaging 395 CUP, which signifies a five-peso drop as reported by the independent outlet elTOQUE.
Exchange rates as of April 11, 2026, 7:43 a.m. in Cuba are as follows:
- USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 522 CUP.
- EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 590 CUP.
- MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Forecast for the Remaining Month
The latest bulletin from the Cuban Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi) suggests a likely moderate devaluation of the national currency in the coming weeks, as highlighted by elTOQUE on Friday.
Forecast models predict the euro could reach approximately 604 CUP by month's end, with the dollar potentially hitting 533 CUP and the MLC hovering around 393 CUP.
However, analysts caution that these figures are subject to high uncertainty.
The report also outlines a broad range of fluctuations: the euro may vary between 574 and 640 CUP, and the dollar between 503 and 590 CUP, underscoring the high volatility of Cuba's informal exchange market.
Apparent Stability Amid Crisis
Despite a semblance of stability in buying and selling rates in recent days, this calm is considered precarious.
According to OMFi, this is more a result of economic slowdown than structural improvement.
Key factors include reduced imports by small and medium-sized enterprises and a contraction in domestic trade, all set against the backdrop of:
- Persisting energy crisis.
- Decline in international tourism.
- Widespread economic depression.
Instead of signaling recovery, the decreased market pressure indicates an economy with diminished capacity for movement and foreign currency generation.
The Gap with Official Market Remains Significant
The analysis challenges the official narrative of conditions being ripe for establishing a more efficient formal exchange market.
While the Central Bank of Cuba places the official rate at 480 CUP per dollar and 554.16 CUP per euro within Segment III, informal market rates are significantly higher.
The discrepancy is around 40 CUP for the dollar and over 30 CUP for the euro.
This gap, ranging from 5% to 8%, highlights that the informal market remains the true benchmark for price formation in the Cuban economy.
Less Foreign Currency, Increased Pressure
The peso's devaluation is driven by unresolved structural factors, notably the steep decline in foreign currency inflow.
Official data show a 56% year-over-year drop in tourist arrivals in February, compounded by challenges in key sectors like nickel exports and overseas medical services.
This contraction reduces foreign currency availability, intensifying pressure on the informal market.
Energy Crisis and Rising Cost of Living
The fuel shortage remains a central element in the economic decline.
Despite temporary reliefs, such as private imports or Russian oil arrivals, the situation continues to severely impact productive activities.
Energy constraints inflate transportation costs, halt industries, and escalate logistics expenses, directly affecting final prices and the purchasing power of the population.
In this scenario, bicycles and electric vehicles have emerged as mobility alternatives. However, their rising demand has also driven up prices, adding further strain on households.
The Limited Impact of New Currency Issuance
The recent issuance of higher denomination bills has facilitated some cash transactions in private businesses and the informal currency market. Nonetheless, this measure has limited reach.
Instead of addressing fundamental issues, the increased liquidity in pesos does not halt the currency's depreciation, which continues to lose value against foreign currencies.
With the dollar at historic highs and projections indicating further increases, Cuba's currency landscape remains fraught with uncertainty.
The combination of structural crisis, foreign currency scarcity, and lack of trust in official mechanisms keeps the informal market as the main economic barometer, where every dollar hike directly impacts Cubans' wallets.
USD to CUP and EUR to CUP Conversion Rates
As of April 11, the conversion rates are:
- 1 USD = 522 CUP.
- 5 USD = 2,610 CUP.
- 10 USD = 5,220 CUP.
- 20 USD = 10,440 CUP.
- 50 USD = 26,100 CUP.
- 100 USD = 52,200 CUP.
For the euro:
- 1 EUR = 590 CUP.
- 5 EUR = 2,950 CUP.
- 10 EUR = 5,900 CUP.
- 20 EUR = 11,800 CUP.
- 50 EUR = 29,500 CUP.
- 100 EUR = 59,000 CUP.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Market Challenges
What is causing the depreciation of the Cuban peso?
The depreciation of the Cuban peso is primarily due to unresolved structural issues, including a significant drop in foreign currency inflow, reduced tourism, and challenges in key export sectors.
Why is there a gap between official and informal market rates?
The gap between official and informal market rates exists because the informal market reflects the true economic conditions and demand, which the official market does not adequately address due to lack of trust and efficiency.
How do energy issues affect Cuba's economy?
Ongoing energy shortages lead to increased transportation and production costs, hindering industrial activities and contributing to higher living expenses, which in turn affect the overall economic stability of the nation.