The Colorado State University (CSU) released its early forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2026, suggesting that the activity will be slightly below the historical average.
The prediction anticipates a total of 13 named storms, with six of these developing into hurricanes, and two reaching major hurricane status (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
This report, crafted by the CSU-RAMS team from the Department of Atmospheric Science, indicates these numbers fall below the long-term averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Influence of El Niño on Hurricane Predictions
The forecast is primarily influenced by the likely occurrence of a moderate to strong El Niño event during the peak months of the season, from August to October 2026.
Currently, the tropical Pacific shows weak La Niña conditions, but a swift transition to El Niño is expected in the coming months. This shift could increase upper-level westward winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, enhancing vertical wind shear, which suppresses hurricane formation and intensification.
Mixed Signals from Atlantic Ocean Conditions
CSU has also noted mixed signals in the Atlantic: while warmer-than-normal waters in the west might support a more active season, cooler temperatures in the east could have the opposite effect.
The anticipated activity for 2026 is about 75% of an average season from the 1991-2020 period, whereas the 2025 season was approximately 105% of that average.
The estimated Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for 2026 is 90 units, compared to a historical average of 107. This April forecast indicates the fewest storms predicted since 2019.
Introducing Machine Learning in Climate Models
For the first time, the team incorporated a machine-learning-based climate model known as Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2). This model uses predicted sea surface temperatures from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), alongside a statistical model and three dynamic models derived from ECMWF, the UK Met Office, and the European CMCC.
Lead author Phil Klotzbach pointed out that the closest analog years to 2026 include 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023, noting that variations in those years highlight the inherent uncertainty of such an early forecast.
Potential Impacts Despite Lower Hurricane Activity
Despite the moderate forecast, researchers caution that the risk remains: the probabilities of major hurricane impacts are 32% for the entire U.S. coastline, 15% for the East Coast, 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, and 35% for the Caribbean.
This last figure is particularly significant for Cuba, which suffered severe damage from Category 5 Hurricane Melissa in the 2025 season, affecting over 3.5 million people in the eastern part of the island and damaging more than 116,100 homes.
Researcher Michael Bell emphasizes that even a single storm close to home can make the season feel very active. "It only takes one storm near you to make this an active season for you," he warns.
CSU plans to update its forecast on June 10, July 8, and August 5, as predictions become more accurate closer to the heart of the season, which officially begins on June 1.
Understanding the 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast
What factors influence the 2026 hurricane forecast?
The forecast is mainly influenced by the anticipated development of a moderate to strong El Niño, which could increase wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, hindering hurricane development.
How does the 2026 season compare to historical averages?
The 2026 season is expected to have 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, which are below the long-term averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
What are the potential impacts on Cuba during the 2026 hurricane season?
Cuba faces a 35% chance of major hurricane impacts, significant given the country's recent experiences with hurricanes like Melissa, which caused extensive damage in 2025.